The XRP price is back under pressure, trading near $2.80–$2.83 after repeatedly failing to reclaim the $3.00 psychological barrier. In derivatives, momentum has cooled as the futures open interest has slipped to roughly $8.85 billion after briefly topping $9 billion, and liquidation data shows the strain on bulls, over $11 million in long positions were wiped out in a single day versus just $2.4 million for shorts. With RSI hovering in the high-30s/low-40s on lower time frames and MACD leaning negative, the setup favors consolidation or further downside unless spot demand meaningfully re-emerges. On-Chain Flows Turn Risk-Off as XRP Whales Distribute Under the hood, flows are skewing defensive. Exchange data shows more than 320 million XRP moved onto centralized venues in the past week, pushing exchange reserves toward nine-month highs, typically a sign that holders are preparing to sell. Similarly, whale cohorts (1–10 million XRP) have distributed about 440 million tokens over 30 days, adding supply into a soft tape. BNB has flipped XRP for the No. 3 market-cap slot amid record BNB Chain activity, while uncertainty around U.S. spot ETF timelines keeps XRP’s macro catalysts murky. Until those headwinds clear or outflows reverse, rallies into resistance are likely to meet supply. Key Levels to Watch for the XRP Price: $2.68 or $3.15 Decide the Next Leg Technically, XRP is compressing inside a descending triangle, making $2.68–$2.70 the pivotal shelf. Veteran traders warn that a weekly close below $2.687 could open a measured move toward $2.22 (roughly –20% from current prices). Immediate resistance sits at $2.92–$3.00; above that, $3.15 is the line that would invalidate the bearish pattern and shift targets to $3.60–$4.50. In the near term, watch for: Spot-led bids and declining funding on bounces (healthier than leverage-driven pops). Exchange reserve inflections (a downturn would ease sell pressure). Open interest rebuilding without overcrowded longs. With futures interest easing and whales distributing, risk remains skewed to the downside while XRP holds below $3.00. Bulls need a clean, high-volume reclaim of $3.00–$3.15 to flip momentum; otherwise, a $2.70 retest, and potentially $2.22 on a breakdown, stays in play. Cover image from ChatGPT, XRPUSD on Tradingview
