Could Eth ereum really hit $10,000 this cycle? Crypto hedge fund XWIN Finance believes the answer lies in liquidity dynamics. As global M2 money supply reaches record highs and exchange reserves plummet, XWIN analysts argue that Ethereum is approaching its “revaluation phase,” a structural shift that could send ETH surging to five figures if current trends hold. Over the past three years, the U.S. M2 money supply has entered a renewed expansion phase, hitting a record high of approximately $22.2 trillion. JUST IN : U.S. M2 Money Supply jumps to a new all-time high of $22.2 Trillion pic.twitter.com/tAVX6YZsWm — Barchart (@Barchart) September 23, 2025 Bitcoin has been the first to capture this “liquidity wave,” climbing more than 130% since 2022 and showing an exceptionally high correlation with M2 of around 0.9. Exchange Supply Shock and M2 Expansion Shows ETH to $10k is Realistic Ethereum, by contrast, remains behind, having risen only about 15% during the same period. This gap represents a clear “liquidity lag,” however, on-chain data suggests this gap may be closing. Source: CryptoQuant Exchange reserves have fallen to around 16.1 million ETH , down more than 25% since 2022, indicating a structural decline in selling pressure. Netflows to exchanges have remained consistently negative, showing that ETH is being withdrawn into self-custody or staking contracts. Meanwhile, the Coinbase Premium Index has turned positive again, pointing to renewed buying interest from U.S. institutions. Source: CryptoQuant These indicators mirror conditions observed in early 2020 and 2021, both of which were precursors to major Ethereum rallies. Historically, Ethereum tends to lag behind Bitcoin in the early stages of monetary easing cycles. Yet when BTC dominance falls below 60% , capital often rotates into the altcoin market, and the ETH/BTC ratio begins to climb. That pattern appears to be emerging again, suggesting that 2025 could mark a shift from a Bitcoin-led phase to an Ethereum- and altcoin-led phase. All of this makes the Q4 target of $10,000 ETH look within range, and if that happens, it would not be the result of speculative excess but a natural outcome of liquidity cycling through the crypto market. Arthur Hayes: Trump’s Wartime Economy Could Push $ETH to $10K by Year-End Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, also believes that $10,000 Ethereum by the end of 2025 seems well within reach. In a July blog post , Hayes laid out his thesis, tying the potential price surge to U.S. President Donald Trump’s economic policies and what he describes as a shift to a wartime economy. BitMEX Co-Founder @CryptoHayes predicts Bitcoin could reach $250,000 and Ethereum $10,000 by the end of 2025 as macroeconomic trends fuel the crypto bull market. #Bitcoin #Crypto #BullMarket https://t.co/vf4Qpuihjo — Cryptonews.com (@cryptonews) July 23, 2025 According to Hayes, the return of Trump has brought in a credit-heavy economic strategy designed to increase industrial output, especially in areas like rare earths and defense manufacturing. Hayes believes this approach, which mirrors aspects of economic planning in China, will flood the system with credit. That, he argues, will create favorable conditions for risk assets, especially top cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Ethereum has now reclaimed the $4,600 level , gaining 11.34% in the past seven days with a market capitalization of $561.93 billion. CoinShares’ recent report has shown that U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs, alongside Ethereum digital asset treasuries, have been driving ETH’s price rally. Ethereum saw inflows totaling $1.48 billion last week alone, pushing total year-to-date (YTD) inflows to a record $13.7 billion, close to triple that of last year. The largest weekly ETPs inflows on record: $5.95B @Bitcoin saw its largest weekly inflows on record totalling US$3.55B, with @solana also breaking its record, at US$706.5M. @ethereum saw inflows totalling US$1.48B whilst XRP ( @Ripple ) also saw substantive inflows of US$219.4M.… pic.twitter.com/w3ccONHEzk — CoinShares (@CoinSharesCo) October 6, 2025 And it’s possible that ETH ETFs will only get busier in the coming months, with major asset manager Grayscale filing today to add staking to its Ethereum ETF. Kevin Rusher, founder of RAAC, a real-world asset borrowing and lending ecosystem, argues that Ethereum’s days below $5,000 may soon be over. “ While the crypto market is experiencing a short-term sell-off after ETH hit close to all-time high over the weekend, the market returns for ETH have been eye-popping over the medium term ,” Rusher said. Combined with staking yields and institutional adoption, such conditions could create what he calls “fiery demand” for ETH. $4,800 Resistance Tested Again: Can ETH Break Through to $7K-$10K? On the technical front, the weekly Ethereum chart shows a key inflection point as price once again tests the major resistance zone around $4,800, a level that has rejected ETH multiple times since 2021. The repeated tops near this region form a broad triple-top pattern, indicating heavy supply pressure just below the all-time high. The current move has pushed Ethereum above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting the market is attempting to complete a full cycle toward the 100% extension near $4,917. Source: TradingView A confirmed breakout and weekly close above this resistance could trigger a strong continuation phase, with Fibonacci projections placing medium-term upside targets between $7,000 and $10,000, depending on the strength of the breakout. Conversely, failure to break through could lead to a short-term retracement toward the $3,500–$3,800 zone, which aligns with the 61.8% retracement area and rising trendline support. The post Crypto Hedge Fund Predicts Ethereum’s “Next Revaluation Phase” if Liquidity Keeps Rising – $ETH to 10K Realistic? appeared first on Cryptonews .
