Summary Avalanche rejected at $30.40 resistance, testing support near $28.80. September 30 net flows recorded –$92.32K outflows, signaling sell pressure. Fundamentals tied to RWA adoption and treasury demand face regulatory headwinds. By Jainam Mehta Avalanche (AVAX-USD) is currently trading at $29.31, struggling to maintain momentum after repeated rejections near the $30.15–$30.40 resistance zone. The token is trading just below its key short-term EMAs, with the 20-day EMA at $29.84, 50-day EMA at $29.66, 100-day EMA at $29.72, and 200-day EMA at $30.23. Immediate support rests near $28.80–$28.50, while a decisive break above $30.40 could shift sentiment. The RSI at 37.94 indicates weakening momentum, leaning closer to oversold territory. Technical Picture On-chain flows reflect mild bearish pressure. Netflows on September 30 showed –$92.32K outflows, suggesting traders moved tokens to exchanges for potential selling. This aligns with broader altcoin weakness, as Bitcoin dominance climbed to 58.1%, drawing capital away from mid-cap projects. Avalanche’s market cap currently stands at $11.25B, down from recent peaks near $13B, highlighting a notable weekly contraction. Avalanche price dynamics (Source: TradingView) Technically, AVAX is capped beneath a stacked resistance cluster, with all four EMAs converging between $29.60 and $30.20. A sustained move above this band is critical for flipping short-term momentum. On the downside, the $28.80–$28.50 support zone remains pivotal; losing this level could expose the token to deeper pullbacks toward $25.50, which coincides with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Fundamental Positioning and Outlook From a fundamentals standpoint, Avalanche continues to draw attention through institutional treasury strategies. Nasdaq-listed AVAX One has targeted a $550M raise to accumulate and stake AVAX, potentially locking up a meaningful portion of circulating supply. However, SEC and FINRA probes into crypto treasury-linked firms have tempered enthusiasm, casting a regulatory overhang on institutional participation. Despite this, Avalanche’s real-world asset adoption and subnet expansion provide a long-term growth narrative that continues to differentiate it from other Layer-1 ecosystems. Short-Term Outlook Looking forward, AVAX sits in a make-or-break range. If the token can hold above $28.80 and reclaim $30.40, momentum could rebuild for a push toward $32.70–$33.00. Conversely, failure to defend $28.50 risks accelerating the downside toward $25.50, where technical and psychological support converge. Broader market flows, ETF headlines, and Bitcoin’s dominance trend will remain decisive in shaping near-term direction. In earlier analysis, the $30.40 resistance was highlighted as the pivot to watch. Current price action validates that view, with repeated failures here reinforcing its role as the key breakout barrier for bulls. This material may contain third-party opinions; none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer . While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity , this post may contain references to products from our partners. Original Post
