Summary Bitcoin and BLOK have shown strong performance, but August and September are typically weak months, suggesting caution in the near term. Despite seasonal risks, I maintain a buy rating on BLOK, supported by its favorable valuation, high momentum, and constructive technical chart. BLOK offers diversification across growth, value, size, and geography with a reasonable P/E and attractive PEG ratio, though it remains a high-risk, concentrated ETF. Technically, BLOK is in a strong uptrend with bullish momentum, and a breakout targets $77, reinforcing my positive outlook despite upcoming seasonal headwinds. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has had a stellar run, approaching the $120,000 mark after busting through its previous all-time high near $112,000 earlier this month. The world’s most valuable cryptocurrency is now up by more than 100% over the past year. It, along with gold, has performed well amid possible de-dollarization. Caution is warranted, in my view, heading into August and September, however. Those are the standout negative months for bitcoin. Hence, shares of crypto-related companies could come into some profit-taking over the next 10 weeks. Still, I reiterate a buy rating on the Amplify Transformational Data Sharing ETF ( BLOK ). The fund has returned 52% since I upgraded it to a buy ahead of the U.S. election last October. With a favorable valuation, high momentum, and a constructive chart, fundamental and technical factors outweigh bearish calendar risks. Bitcoin: Weakness Is Common In August And September Barchart According to the issuer , BLOK invests at least 80% of its net assets in the equity securities of companies actively involved in the development and utilization of blockchain technologies. Blockchain is a peer-to-peer shared, distributed ledger that can track tangible, intangible, and digital assets and companies in all business sectors through the process of recording transactions and tracking assets in a business network. BLOK is a small ETF with $1.1 billion in assets under management as of July 11, 2025. That’s up from just $747 million nine months ago. The fund’s annual expense ratio is high at 73 basis points, while its trailing 12-month dividend yield is actually quite high at 4.43%. I would call out that the payout history is very volatile—some end-of-year distributions are high, while others are low, below $0.70. After nearly doubling off its April low, BLOK’s share-price momentum grade is stellar, an A+ according to Seeking Alpha’s quantitative scoring system. Still, the fund is highly risky given its concentrated portfolio and elevated historical standard deviation trends. Liquidity metrics are decent—average daily volume is north of 300,000 shares, while the median 30-day bid/ask spread is a bit wide at 10 basis points, per Amplify ETFs. Looking closer at the portfolio, the allocation plots across the style box. There is a solid mix of growth, blend, and value, along with size diversification among small, mid, and large. On net, the price-to-earnings ratio is actually quite tame at 20.4, according to Morningstar. And with a high long-term earnings growth rate of 12.4%, the resulting PEG ratio is attractive at 1.6. Finally, with about one-fifth of the fund invested in international stocks, there is geographical diversification, too. BLOK: Portfolio & Factor Profiles Morningstar From a sector perspective, while there are five areas of the market listed, it’s really a single, far-reaching niche that BLOK is exposed to. Generally, fintech is at the heart of the strategy, with some positions having crypto-adjacent activities. Names like Coinbase ( COIN ) and Strategy ( MSTR ) will move alongside crypto. So, as earnings season begins, it’s not only important to pay attention to the fundamentals of BLOK’s biggest holdings but also price action with bitcoin. BLOK: Holdings & Dividend Information Seeking Alpha Like bitcoin, BLOK has tended to encounter headwinds in August and September. Of course, we still have a few weeks of bullish tailwinds from July to work through. I’ll point out an area on the chart that is doable if that historical pattern plays out once more. BLOK: Weak August-September Seasonals Seeking Alpha The Technical Take With high momentum, a decent valuation, and worrisome seasonality soon to ensue, BLOK’s technical situation is strong. Notice in the chart below that shares have been in a broad uptrend since notching a low under $15 back at the start of 2023. We have a clear uptrend support line, though that’s now way down in the mid-$30s. The resistance part of the channel will come closer into view, near $70. In the near term, we could see some selling pressure at the previous double-top all-time high between $63 and $65. So, another 10%-plus of upside is quite possible, maybe even this month. With a rising long-term 200-day moving average, the bulls control the primary trend, and BLOK recently broke out above $55. That advance triggered a bullish upside measured move price objective to $77 based on the depth of the December to April decline. Also take a look at the RSI momentum oscillator at the top of the graph—it’s ranging in a bullish zone, above 60. Finally, with a high amount of volume by price below today’s level, there should be ample support on pullbacks. BLOK: Broad Uptrend, Near-Term Breakout Targets $77 Stockcharts.com The Bottom Line I have a buy rating on BLOK. Despite bearish seasonal trends beginning in August, fundamentals and technicals appear favorable as bitcoin notches new records.
