Summary Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. is rated Buy with a $53 price target, implying 33% upside over 12 months. FIGR leads the tokenized private credit market, posting 81% revenue growth and 75% adjusted EBITDA growth year-over-year. Despite trading at a premium (61x FY2025 earnings), FIGR's dominant market share, rapid growth, and capital-light model justify valuation. FIGR risks include premium valuation, macro headwinds, regulatory uncertainty, and early-stage execution challenges, but tailwinds are seen as outweighing these concerns. Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. ( FIGR ) is up 18% over the past five days, following the announcement of launching a real-world asset consortium. The technology company enables a blockchain-driven approach to capital and lending markets, resulting in a significant cost reduction and elimination of intermediaries. The stock's IPO was on September 10, 2025 . FIGR has disrupted the traditional lending process, introducing an efficient blockchain-native implementation, automating workflows, and creating the Figure Connect marketplace. In this way, loans are tokenized and sold to both investors and institutions in a capital-light approach. The stock trades at roughly 61x earnings multiple versus the FY2025 EPS estimate ; thus, it is not cheap. It indicates an approximately 6x premium versus the sector median at 11x, and 2.6x overvaluation versus the average company in the S&P500 at 23x earnings multiple . However, I argue the company may remain cheap if execution and growth deliver. I rate Figure Technology Solutions a Buy with a $53 price target over the next 12 months. This reflects a 33% upside possibility and broader market outperformance. I think the company may appear to be a compelling opportunity for long-term investors seeking diversification into the consumer finance space with blockchain innovation. Q3 2025: Starting With A Double-Beat On November 13, the company delivered Q3 2025 results. This was the first-ever public quarterly report, followed by a strong momentum and double-beat performance . The company started on the right foot, and investors reacted to the results with a 16% surge in the stock price over the following session. Figure posted $156 million in revenue and approximately $37 million above what the market had anticipated. The bottom line arrived at $0.34 in diluted EPS, $0.19 above analysts' estimates. FIGR: Q3 2025 Key Highlights (Figure Technology Solutions Investor Relations) In the earnings presentation , management highlighted that it has achieved $2.5 billion in consumer loan marketplace volume, a 70% surge on a year-over-year basis. This supports my bullish stance and indicates a substantial demand for the company's innovative lending solution. Figure has also delivered $86.4 million in adjusted EBITDA, indicating a 75% growth on a year-over-year basis, with 55.4% in adjusted EBITDA margin. This argues for continuation in the bottom-line growth uptrend. FIGR: Q3 2025 Capital Market Disruption (Figure Technology Solutions Investor Relations) The company indicated that it currently accounts for roughly 75% of the tokenized private credit market, supported by the total value of outstanding loans originated. Figure's main focus is on home equity lines of credit ((HELOC)), and it has underscored that it obtained an Aaa rating from Moody's and an AAA from S&P rating for its tokenized HELOC securitization. This is a significant acknowledgement by market-leading rating companies, reassuring a high standard in lending solutions and investor confidence. FIGR: Asset Tokenization 101 (Deutsche Bank Research, Asset Tokenization 101) In the following research, named Asset Tokenization 101 , Deutsche Bank indicated that tokenized assets accounted for $59.7 million in value in 2018 and have skyrocketed, reaching $300 billion by October 2025. This represents an enormous demand for tokenized solutions, including private credit. Following this, if Figure maintains its dominant stance in the space, it may meaningfully benefit from broader market growth. Furthermore, with favorable legislation in place, such as the GENIUS Act signed by President Trump, establishing a clearer framework for stablecoins, adoption of digital assets may accelerate. The current administration is pro crypto, and that heavily supports a bullish outlook for the company and the tokenization industry. FIGR: Q3 2025 Consumer Loan Marketplace Opportunities (Figure Technology Solutions Investor Relations) The company indicated that its blockchain-native business approach reduces 93% of loan origination costs and an 80% reduction in third-party review expenses. In addition to this, it offers tech-enabled 24/7 settlement and DeFi liquidity. Figure powers smart contracts and democratizes Prime, achieving lower financing costs. I think this meaningfully supports a positive outlook for the company. FIGR's consumer lean marketplace originations experienced a 74% CAGR from 2020, surging from $0.5 billion to $5.7 billion in the first nine months of FY2025. The partner-branded originations accounted for 76% of the total amount and were a significant driver for the company's success. This also implies excellent execution by management. If the trend continues, Figure remains well-positioned to meaningfully benefit from demand. To conclude, I think Figure appears to be a compelling opportunity for long-term investors seeking diversification into a capital market and lending disruption. Figure pioneers its way to a tokenized, efficient, and low-cost approach to lending solutions, which I think may experience massive demand in the following years due to tech-enabled capabilities. Strong Market Position And High Growth Justify Premium Figure trades at a forward P/E of approximately 47 versus the FY2026 EPS estimate. It does indicate a significant premium, which may cap the upside. However, I argue that it may actually be cheap if growth delivers, and the chart below signals there is more room for upside if tailwinds materialize. FIGR: Forward P/E (YCharts) On a forward EV/Sales and Price/Sales ratios of 16.83 and 17.89 , respectively, the blockchain-native company trades at a 5x premium versus the sector medians of 3.21 and 3.02. Although it may appear elevated, I argue that it remains insignificant. The company delivered 81% revenue growth over the past 12 months, representing a 9.5x outperformance versus peers at 8.5%. Thus, if we compared revenue growth versus valuation metrics, the stock is actually fairly cheap. The revenue growth rate also represents an 8x outperformance versus the average company in the S&P 500 at 10% historical top-line growth . To highlight, Figure trades at a 2.2x overvaluation versus the FY2026 EPS estimate and the benchmark, although it delivers an 8x with a more rapid revenue growth rate. I argue that the market hasn't fully priced future revenue growth, and this is fueling a positive outlook. FIGR: Capital Structure (Seeking Alpha) Another bullish argument is tied to a low-leveraged capital structure. The company has $809 million in total obligations and $1.10 billion in cash; thus, it could pay its debt with ease. This is appealing, indicating that management has financial flexibility to use debt-related instruments if needed. Figure operates at premium, above-market margins, validating my bullish stance. The net income margin ((TTM)) of 32.46% suggests 37% outperformance versus peers at 24%. Management has also achieved a 5.76% return on total assets ((TTM)), a 4.5x outperformance versus peers at 1.2%. To sum up, I think Figure is a phenomenal company. Its innovative approach pioneers the way to an untapped market, which has experienced an outstanding demand. If the trend continues, and FIGR can sustain a dominant share in the space, it could substantially benefit from the broader trend. To this, the technology company has a low-leveraged capital structure and operates at above-market margins, fueling my bullish thesis. Wall Street anticipates $0.87 in diluted EPS in FY2026, and I agree with the estimate. I believe Figure remains well-positioned to drive the tokenization wave and can achieve the target. I also anticipate that the stock price may follow bottom-line growth. Thus, if we apply the current 61x earnings multiple to the FY2026 EPS estimate of $0.87, we arrive at my price target of $53. I believe it is a reasonable estimate if tailwinds and growth deliver. Main Risks And Concerns Figure Technology Solutions is tied to risks and concerns that could meaningfully impact stock price performance in the short term. To begin with, the company is trading at a significant premium. Although I think the technology pioneer deserves elevated valuation, if sentiment dramatically shifts, the stock price may correct. This signals that the downside is not protected, and investors should remain cautious. Furthermore, the company is sensitive to macroeconomic headwinds. If the global economy enters a recession and default risk increases, followed by significant weakness in consumer credit, both sentiment and balance sheet may be heavily suppressed. I would say this is a core risk to the company's business. Although the current administration is pro-crypto, regulatory changes and scrutiny may cloud the tokenization and digital asset outlook. If negative legislations come into force, this could also significantly impact sentiment; thus, the valuation could be discounted. The innovative approach remains in its first innings. Although the industry experiences enormous growth, the industry is still in an early stage. Therefore, it comes with execution risks, especially if scale stalls. On the other hand, if none of the above risks and concerns materialize, Figure appears to be well-positioned to drive the demand curve further. Figure May Present A Compelling Opportunity — A Buy I believe Figure Technology Solutions may appear to be a compelling diversification opportunity for long-term investors seeking a high-growth, high-demand name. The blockchain-based company pioneers its way into the traditional lending space and presents an innovative approach to efficient, capital-light capital market solutions. Figure remains a significant top-line growth story that has a low-leveraged capital structure and operates at premium, above-market margins. The current administration is also a pro-crypto, which fuels a bullish narrative tied to a more stable stablecoin and digital asset adoption. Although the industry remains in its first innings and comes with execution and default risks, I think tailwinds outweigh the headwinds. I rate Figure Technology Solutions a Buy with a $53 price target over the next 12 months. This suggests a 33% upside possibility and broader market outperformance. I believe the stock may appreciate in price following its bottom-line expansion. 8 Wall Street analysts forecast a $50 price target, signaling 24% upside potential. It will be interesting to see whether this materializes.
