Seeking Alpha
2025-11-18 13:53:07

TeraWulf: Rich AI Prospects In 2026/2027 - Dip Buying Opportunity

Summary WULF finally nears my Buy Zone after the recent meltdown, as it also reports robust AI related opportunities and higher multi-year contracted backlog. The company is more than well positioned to monetize their ambitious "target of 250–500 MW critical IT load of new HPC lease signings annually," thanks to the growing HPC capacity. WULF's projected NOI margin of over ~70% is extremely impressive as well, compared to other data center REITs, with it implying its robust top/ bottom-line growth prospects. The meltdown has already triggered WULF's cheaper FY2027 EV/Sales valuations of ~4.44x, nearer to its hyperscaler/neocloud peers while triggering an improved margin of safety. With the bright long-term prospects outweighing the near-term noise surrounding the recent moderation in BTC spot prices, I am reiterating my Buy rating for the WULF stock. I previously covered TeraWulf Inc (NASDAQ: WULF ) in October 2025, discussing how its timely transition to HPC opportunities had been backed by the insatiable cloud demand and the higher data center-related capex trends. Combined with the strategic leveraging of its existing bitcoin mining infrastructure for HPC purposes, the strategic financing from Alphabet ( GOOG ), and the cheap FY2027 valuations, I had initiated my Buy rating upon a moderate retracement to the 50/100-day moving averages for a lower dollar cost average then. In this article, I shall discuss why I am reiterating my Buy rating for the WULF stock as it finally nears my Buy Zones, thanks to its robust AI monetization opportunities arising from the multi-year contracted backlog and the growing HPC capacity. I am of the opinion that its bright long-term prospects far outweigh the near-term headwinds arising from the higher debt reliance and the volatile Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) spot prices as well. WULF Reports Robust AI Monetization WULF 1Y Stock Price Trading View Since my last article, the early Q3'25 earnings season has finally brought forth " stock valuation fears ," with it triggering notable corrections across the AI value chain and WULF similarly pulling back by -35.5% since the 52 week heights. This development was also why I previously urged readers to wait before adding, preferably after a moderate retracement to the 50/100-day moving averages, thanks to the potential volatility and capital losses arising from chasing overpriced stocks during an exuberant AI hype. This is especially since WULF is mostly a bitcoin miner, with the FQ3'25 digital asset revenues of $43.37M ( -8.9% QoQ /+60.3% YoY) comprising 85.7% of its overall revenues (-14.3 points QoQ/YoY). Thanks to the higher average BTC spot prices of $114.47K in Q3'25 (+15.9% QoQ/+87.5% YoY) along with the expanding mining capacity of 245 MW ( inline QoQ / +25.6% YoY ), it is unsurprising that the company has proved itself as a beneficiary of the cryptocurrency boom, as demand for alternative assets grow and the de-dollarization trends continue . WULF's Robust HPC Opportunities WULF Otherwise, while nascent, WULF has reported robust HPC lease revenues of $7.2M (NA QoQ/NA YoY), with further growth likely, based on the Lake Mariner Campus HPC leasing capacity of 22.5 MW in FQ3'25 along with the planned expansion to 522.5 MW through 2026 and up to 750 MW in maximum capacity . This is on top of the upcoming HPC leasing capacity of 168 MW in Abernathy from H2'26 onwards and 400 MW in Cayuga, New York from 2027 onwards, which naturally lend credence to the management's aggressive guidance of ~1.5 GW in critical IT load capacity over the next few years and the ambitious growth "target of 250–500 MW critical IT load of new HPC lease signings annually." These may allow WULF to report robust top-line growth prospects moving forward, allowing them to monetize their 100% pre-leased contracted backlog of 510 MW at favorable rates, based on the overall contracted revenues of $17.2B across: the 60 MW - Core42 lease, with projected NOI margin of 85%, the 366 MW - Fluidstack lease, with projected NOI margin of 85%, and the 168 MW - Fluidstack lease, with projected NOI margin of 70%. These profit margins are impressive as well, compared to numerous data center REITs, including Equinix ( EQIX ) at over ~60% over the LTM and Digital Realty Trust ( DLR ) at ~50%, allowing them to deliver highly profitable margins ahead. The Conse nsus Forward Estimates Seeking Alpha As a result of the robust insights offered by the contracted backlog and the projected expansion in its capacity, I can understand why the consensus forward estimates appear rather promising, with WULF expected to report an accelerated top-line growth at a CAGR of +99.7% through FY2027. On the other hand, given the supposed 2Y+ time lag between the typical booking and the revenue recognition arising from the tight supply environment, I am of the opinion that WULF is likely to intensify their debt reliance in the mean time, with it likely to trigger its mixed near-term prospects before things drastically lift once its HPC capacity is ramped up and its multi-year backlog is monetized. For reference, WULF has already reported numerous financing activities across the $3.2B from GOOG and the $2B in Convertible Notes 2030/2031 (pre-FQ3'25 earnings call) along with the new $3.2B in Convertible Notes 2030 (post FQ3'25 earnings call) and the new $1.02B in Convertible Notes 2032. The elevated HPC ramping up costs/higher interest expenses may also be why WULF continues to report negative net income performances, despite the growing adj EBITDA profitability by +203% YoY in FQ3'25. A similar trend has been observed in numerous neoclouds/hyperscalers in the recent Q3'25 earnings season, with it signaling the hefty and bottom-line/cash flow dilutive capex trends during the multi-year AI boom. WULF Is An Even Better Buy After The Correction WULF 5Y Stock Price Trading View Thanks to the market-wide AI-related meltdown, WULF has already lost part of its recent Q4'25 gains to retest the prior support levels of $10s ranges, with it also bringing the stock nearer to the prior Buy Zone discussed in my last article. WULF Valuations Seeking Alpha On the one hand, given the nascency of its HPC leasing opportunities, WULF may appear to be somewhat expensive at FWD EV/Sales valuations of 27.43x, compared to the sector median of 3.40x and its peers, including: hyperscaler - Amazon ( AMZN ) at FWD EV/Sales valuations of 3.60x, hyperscaler - Alphabet ( GOOG ) ( GOOGL ) at 8.21x, hyperscaler - Microsoft ( MSFT ) at 11.66x, neocloud - DigitalOcean ( DOCN ) at 6.21x, neocloud - CoreWeave ( CRWV ) at 10.78x, neocloud - Nebius ( NBIS ) at 36.85x, and Bitcoin miner turned HPC provider - Core Scientific ( CORZ ) at 14.19x. On the other hand, with much of its capacity expected to be ramped up over the next few years, I am of the opinion that WULF appears rather compelling at my estimated FY2027 EV/Sales valuations of 4.44x, based on the current Enterprise Value of $4.98B and the consensus FY2027 revenue estimates of $1.12B. This is especially since WULF benefits from the firm multi-year backlog and the growing HPC compute capacity, albeit with lumpy near-term performance arising from the recent moderation in BTC spot prices. With the bright long-term prospects far outweighing the near-term noise, I am reiterating my Buy rating for the WULF stock.

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