Summary eToro Group Ltd. continues to grow users and revenue, but the stock remains pressured due to thin profit margins and heavy reliance on crypto trading. ETOR stock's valuation appears fair, trading at 15x forward earnings and just over 2x book value, with potential upside if profits stabilize and diversify. Management's $150 million buyback and expansion into new products and markets signal confidence, but competition and regulatory risks remain high. I remain neutral on ETOR, recommending a Hold; wait for steadier profits and less dependence on crypto before considering a Buy rating. Looking back at where I stood on eToro Group Ltd. ( ETOR ) in September , when the price sat around $44, things haven’t exactly gotten easier for this stock. It’s dropped another 20 percent and now sits just above $35 before the market opens, close to its recent lows. This is after a three-month period where shares lost nearly 40 percent, even though eToro keeps reporting strong results , just rolled out a big $150 million share buyback and keeps growing its user base and platform assets at a double-digit pace. The business itself is still running strong, maybe even picking up steam but it’s clear the market isn’t fully convinced yet. Even though eToro trades at about 15 times what it’s expected to earn in 2025 (and just over 2 times book value), its profit margins are pretty thin, just over 1 percent and it’s still tied closely to the unpredictable world of crypto trading. The company keeps launching new products and pushing into new markets, but it hasn’t really shown it can generate consistent profits. If management keeps doing a good job and the market feels better, I think there’s real room for the stock to rise but there’s also a lot of risk if crypto cools off or competitors step up. I think the market is right to be careful. ETOR is growing fast but the earnings are still bumpy. The stock looks fairly priced right now considering both the upside and the risk. So for now, this feels like something to wait and watch. So, I’d keep an eye on it but I don’t think it’s time to jump in or sell. Business Highlights (ETOR Q3 2025 Shareholder Presentation) What eToro Is Building and Where Its Money Comes From eToro is a global trading platform where people can buy stocks, crypto, commodities and options and it stands out for its social copy-trading features plus a bunch of newer banking and wealth tools. Management has spent the past year rolling out 24/5 U.S. stock trading, launching tokenized assets , bringing in AI investing tools and pushing wealth products into more places. One move that stands out is the Spaceship acquisition in Australia, which bumped funded accounts up 16 percent to 3.73 million and helped eToro get a stronger foothold in the retirement savings market in Asia-Pacific. They’ve also added a U.K. cash ISA and started offering more local banking features. All this should help them build up some steady income but the reality is that trading and especially crypto, is still the main event for eToro right now. They’re working hard to diversify but it’s still early days for those other lines of business. Four main areas drive eToro’s growth. (ETOR Q3 2025 Shareholder Presentation) Who eToro Competes With and What Could Change This space is wild. eToro’s in the thick of a fintech industry that’s full of competition and moving fast. Big names like Robinhood and Coinbase are stronger brands in the U.S., with deeper pockets and marketing spend and there are always new players trying to break in from all over the world. The way the industry’s changing is pretty interesting. You’ve got the rise of tokenized assets, more people trading socially, these simple investing apps, a whole lot of regulatory headaches and the cost to attract new customers keeps climbing. What gives eToro a leg up is its global reach and social features, especially outside the U.S. In America, though, it’s still a small player and even around the world, it really depends on what everyday people do with their money. If trading is hot, eToro’s business booms but if things quiet down, so does revenue. There’s a real opportunity but there’s also the risk that what they offer just becomes one more thing you can get anywhere. Staying ahead means they’ll need to keep coming up with new ideas and spend their money wisely, or they’ll fall behind. New products and global expansion. (ETOR Q3 2025 Shareholder Presentation) What the Numbers Show In the third quarter of 2025, eToro pulled in $4.11 billion in revenue and net contribution rose 28 percent from last year to $215 million. Net income went up 48 percent to $57 million and adjusted EBITDA was up 43 percent to $78 million. Assets under administration shot up to $20.8 billion. The company really is growing: they have more funded accounts, more interest-earning assets and more money coming through the platform. Even so, margins are still pretty thin. Profit margins are just about 1.4 percent and the stock trades at about 15 times 2025 expected earnings. The thing is, since so much of their business depends on trading (especially crypto), profits are always going to jump around. They’ve got over a billion dollars in cash and don’t have too much debt but they’re still putting a lot of money into new products and growth. If you look at what’s driving the business, crypto commissions grew a ton, equities are strong but income from other stuff isn’t a big deal yet. They’re trying to build up their banking, wealth and subscription businesses but for now, the ups and downs in crypto are what make the difference. I see lots of growth but the way they make money isn’t steady enough yet for me to say you should buy this. People need to see bigger and more steady profits, not just higher sales. Net Contribution Breakdown (ETOR Q3 2025 Shareholder Presentation) Is eToro Stock Cheap or Expensive? On valuation, eToro trades at about 15 times forward earnings and just over twice book value. It actually looks cheaper than Robinhood or Coinbase if you just look at P/E but those companies have different business models and way higher margins. eToro’s price-to-book isn’t scary but it feels like the market is waiting for proof that the profits will last. Unless they start showing steady improvement in margins or really shift their revenue mix, I just don’t see a reason the shares should re-rate higher soon. To me, the stock’s not especially cheap but not expensive either. It’s right in that zone where the potential and the risk pretty much cancel each other out. How the Market Feels About ETOR Lately When you read the headlines, you’d think things were going great: strong growth, a big buyback, new features, AI, tokenized assets, CopyTrader making its way into the U.S. But the stock’s been under pressure even after solid earnings, which tells me investors still have doubts about how stable those profits are. The buyback is a good sign that management thinks the shares are cheap but it also shows just how much eToro depends on the ups and downs of trading and how hard it is to make money from new launches right away. Investors are definitely paying attention to more than just the headline numbers; they want to see profits stick around and more steady income. So the news looks pretty positive but the stock isn’t moving, which means people want to see more proof before they get excited. eToro is buying back shares (ETOR Q3 2025 Shareholder Presentation) The Big Risks I’m Watching There are some real risks here and they aren’t just “what if” scenarios. The biggest is that eToro still depends heavily on crypto trading volumes and prices, which, let’s face it, can swing wildly. There’s also fierce competition from all sides and with regulation constantly shifting around the world, eToro has to keep up with a maze of rules. The company is also betting big on new wealth and banking products and there’s no guarantee those take off. And with all these new ideas like AI-driven investing and tokenized assets, there’s always a chance they end up being flashy features that don’t bring in much cash. On top of all that, trying to grow so quickly and in so many places can stretch management thin. These are the main reasons I think it makes sense to hold the stock for now. Things could go really well if everything works out but there’s just as much risk if something goes wrong, especially with crypto or rules changing. What Could Happen Next Analysts are looking for good earnings growth, with EPS that could hit $2.47 next year and $2.90 the year after and revenue to top a billion by 2027. But for now, I think things will stay pretty bumpy. Trading activity and crypto sentiment are still the main drivers, so quarters could easily swing either way. What I’ll be watching is whether eToro can make more progress in the U.S. with CopyTrader , grow those banking and wealth products and get people using tokenized assets and AI tools. A surprise to the upside could come if any of these new ideas really catch on fast but what investors really want to see is more stable, steady profits that aren’t so tied to what’s happening with crypto. The next year is all about how well they actually perform. If they can show they’re growing margins and making money from more than just trading, I think the shares could go up. Until then, I’m happy to just watch from the sidelines. Funded accounts keep increasing (ETOR Q3 2025 Shareholder Presentation) Where ETOR Stock Could Go From Here If things go south, say crypto trading slows and new products flop, then earnings per share could drop below $2 and the stock could break through those recent lows in the $30s. If things just muddle along, with solid growth but thin margins and earnings staying choppy, I’d expect the stock to hover somewhere between $35 and $50. On the bright side, if eToro really does actually branch out and make more money from new products while crypto stays strong, then EPS could hit $3 or more by 2027 and the stock might finally make a run above $55. What really matters is if the company can show a few quarters of steady growth from different areas. If they can do that, people’s views will change fast. But if crypto, new rules, or new products let people down, I could see shares heading lower in a hurry. Bottom Line: Why I’m Still on Hold All in all, I’m still neutral on ETOR at these prices. The company’s key numbers are headed the right way, management is showing some guts with the buyback and the long-term story still looks good if they can make trading less of a single-focus operation. But until they prove they can grow their profits and become less dependent on crypto, I think the market is smart to be careful. Right now, the chances for gains and losses seem about even. If you own ETOR already, it makes sense to hold on and see if they can make it work. If you’re thinking about buying in now, I’d wait until there’s better proof of steady profits or the stock gets cheaper. No need to rush in now. Let’s see how the next few quarters play out.
