Seeking Alpha
2025-09-26 12:53:34

Can Hyperliquid See Off Threat From Dark Pool DEXs?

Summary Hyperliquid remains the dominant perpetual DEX, despite recent competition and a 27% pullback in its token price. HYPE's strong market share, high open interest, and token buyback incentives support its long-term position, even as dark pool DEXes like Aster gain traction. Aster's rapid growth, YZi Labs' backing, and dark pool trading model present a credible threat, attracting institutional and large-volume traders. Holding HYPE may be prudent, but monitoring the evolving DEX landscape is essential as dark pool platforms continue to gain momentum. Introduction The hype on perpetual futures decentralised exchanges (DEXs) is heating up, thanks in part to Hyperliquid ( HYPE-USD ), whose price has surged more than 350% since July 4. And with hype comes more interest, which is why more platforms are looking to get in the game early, before the market gets out of reach. Decentralised crypto exchanges experienced a slower adoption compared to their centralised counterparts like Binance. Unlike centralised exchange platforms, DEXs operate on a peer-to-peer mechanism in an attempt to limit the number of intermediaries involved in the market. And while they have been around for just about as long as their centralised peers, the likes of Binance have continued to dominate the industry. That has changed recently, as evidenced by the open interest in Bitcoin Futures products across top trading platforms. Hyperliquid has emerged as one of the top platforms for perpetual Bitcoin swaps, with $2.4 billion in open interest. However, its position is now being challenged by the likes of Aster, EdgeX, and Lighter. Over the past 24 hours, BNB Chain-based Aster saw its transaction volume skyrocket to a whopping $25 billion, more than double Hyperliquid’s $10 billion over the same timeframe. EdgeX’s $8 billion and Lighter’s $6 billion are still below the leading perpetual DEX platform, but not far off, according to DeFiLlama data. Top perp futures DEXs by 24H Vol. (DeFiLlama) Overall, perpetual DEX trading volume across platforms tracked by DeFiLlama has spiked recently, to hit a new daily high of about $52 billion. This illustrates the increasing interest in the sector, especially since the turn of the year. Perp futures DEXs daily volume (DeFiLlama) Why are dark pool DEXs gaining popularity? Aster’s recent transaction volume spike is not by accident. Backed by YZi Labs, the platform has been hyped up, including by top crypto people like Chengpeng Zhao. In a recent post on the X platform, Zhao wrote , “Aster cracks me up, leverage me fully (pun intended). Well played.” The post was accompanied by a repost of Aster’s announcement that users can trade $HYPE token, Hyperliquid’s native token, with up to 300% leverage. While Aster is a direct competitor of Hyperliquid, it is a slightly different kind of decentralised exchange platform. Unlike Hyperliquid, where transactions are completely transparent, Aster uses Dark Pools, which are trading avenues that allow large trades to happen privately without immediately appearing on the public blockchain. It is the same trade mechanism applied by institutional investors like hedge funds in traditional financial markets to avoid causing sharp market swings. One of the benefits of using Dark Pools in decentralised exchanges is the ability to reduce slippage and prevent sophisticated investors from front-running trades. While platforms like Hyperliquid, which make trade details immediately available on the order book data flow, remain popular with most traders, large investors, who put in millions of dollars per position, would be better protected if order details were kept secret until the transaction is completed. This ensures sophisticated investors who target large positions to front-run and arbitrage for profits do not get a chance. Grvt co-founder and CEO Hong Yea shares a similar view, according to a recent Forbes article . "We've seen those cases where they do get hunted," Yea told Forbes contributor Boaz Sobrado, referring to large traders whose positions become targets for arbitrage opportunities. "Many of those folks who take high leverage on very large positions—let's say $50 million—they don't want to be hunted." Yea’s perpetual futures DEX leverages zero-knowledge proofs to keep trade details hidden from the transaction orderbook until they are finalised. And like Aster, his company seems to be benefiting from the rising popularity of dark pools, with its 7-day transaction volume crossing $2 billion on Thursday, according to Yea’s post on the X platform. The interest in dark pool DEXs is further illustrated by venture capital firms, which continue to inject capital into the sector. More recently, Grvt raised $19 million in a Series A round led by enterprise-grade blockchain network ZKsync, which invested $14 million. Can Hyperliquid bounce back from dark pool DEXs' pressure? Aster has overtaken Hyperliquid in short-term transaction volume. However, in the longer time frame, the leading decentralised exchange platform, which has seen its market share fall to about 38% from 71% in May, continues to dominate numbers, with more than double Aster’s 30-day transaction volume of $115 billion versus its figure of $284 billion, according to DeFiLlama data . But it's not just the volume; looking at other metrics like open interest , Hyperliquid’s figure of $12.66 billion is about ten times Aster’s $1.267 billion . Hyperliquid also boasts more than three times Aster's total value locked, with $6.4 billion versus $2.1 billion. The point here is that Hyperliquid has used its market dominance to cement its financial position, which allows it the flexibility to absorb certain market shocks as those it is experiencing due to pressure from Aster, Lighter, EdgeX, Grvt, and others. Should you buy HYPE after the pullback? Hyperliquid’s native token HYPE has pulled back significantly amid selling pressure after ceding ground to Aster and others. The HYPE price has fallen from a high of about $58.92 on September 18 to trade at $42.80, reflecting a decline of approximately 27%. Subsequently, HYPE has erased all gains made during the preceding two-week period. HYPE price (CoinMarketCap) Given Hyperliquid’s token-holder value-boosting incentives, which include using a majority of fees generated to buy back HYPE, versus the pressure the company is facing from rivals, that is still not enough to support a buy argument. However, it does provide investors with the confidence to hold for now. The company has also launched a GENIUS Act-compliant stablecoin, USDH, further opening the door to institutions that may seek compliant-ready infrastructure. The USDH stablecoin also reduces Hyperliquid’s overreliance on third-party stablecoins like the USDT and USDC. The dark pool threat is real While Hyperliquid’s strong data and regulatory-compliant products suggest it is well-positioned in the market to battle the storm, the threat of dark pool DEXs can not be ignored. Even upcoming players like Grvt have seen their transaction volume double within a week, further illustrating the reception dark pool DEXs are getting in the market. Aster, which boasts backing from YZi Labs, is quickly eating into Hyperliquid’s perpetual futures DEXs market share, and with Zhao relentlessly drumming up its campaign, it may take time before the buzz fizzles out. That means there could be more downward movement in HYPE before the next rebound. Therefore, it may be wise to hold HYPE while keeping a close eye on how the perpetual futures exchange battle unfolds amid the buzz surrounding dark pools.

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