Bitcoin has suffered a sharp pullback after hitting its all-time high earlier this year. The cryptocurrency has fallen more than 13.75% from its record peak of $124,500, now trading at around $108,791. This drop broke below its multiyear uptrend support, raising concerns of a deeper market correction. Historical Patterns Raise Red Flags Bitcoin’s bull markets have traditionally relied on parabolic support curves as a foundation for sustained rallies. Temporary dips below this curve have not always been fatal, so long as the relative strength index (RSI) maintained its momentum. Trouble has historically emerged when both parabola and RSI support failed. In 2013, that scenario triggered an 85% crash from $1,150 to $150. A similar breakdown in 2017 led to an 84% plunge from nearly $20,000 to $3,100. Again in 2021, Bitcoin lost both supports and tumbled 77% from $69,000 to roughly $15,500. The Current Outlook By late August 2025, Bitcoin slipped under its long-term trendline support. However, RSI remains above its critical uptrend, leaving some room for optimism. The key test will come if RSI weakens. A breakdown there could send Bitcoin toward its 50-week exponential moving average, around $80,000, by year’s end. Such a move would mirror previous cycle corrections that reset investor sentiment before renewed rallies. Analysts Suggest Pullback Could Be Temporary Some analysts argue that the current correction may not signal the end of the bull cycle. BitBull, a popular crypto market commentator, described the recent breakdown as a possible “fakeout.” Even a move briefly under $100,000 could fit Bitcoin’s historical pattern of forcing out weaker hands before rebounding, he argued. That would put the $80,000–$100,000 range as both a bearish target and a potential launchpad for the next upward move. Cycle Indicators Suggest Room to Grow Market analyst SuperBro pointed to the Pi Cycle Top model, a long-trusted tool for identifying Bitcoin’s cycle peaks. The model tracks two moving averages: the 111-day simple moving average and twice the 350-day simple moving average. When the 111-day line rises to cross above the 350-day x2 line, it has historically marked major cycle tops. These crossovers were evident in 2013, 2017, and 2021 — each followed by sharp corrections. At present, however, the crossover has not occurred. SuperBro believes this indicates Bitcoin has not yet reached its peak and forecasts a possible top at $280,000. Investor Sentiment at a Crossroads Despite the pullback, Bitcoin’s long-term cycle signals remain intact. For now, the correction resembles past volatility episodes that preceded stronger rallies. If RSI holds and cycle indicators stay supportive, analysts suggest that the latest decline could ultimately prove to be a consolidation phase rather than the start of a long downturn.
