Summary Uniswap's price breakdown below $11.20 pivot confirms distribution phase. $25M net inflow on August 15 marks the largest exchange injection in six months. Holding $10.30-10.40 is critical to avoid flush toward $9.60-9.40 range lows. By Jainam Mehta Uniswap ( UNI-USD ) has broken decisively below its short-term rising wedge, falling nearly 6.6% over the last 24 hours to trade near $10.40. The failure to hold the $11.20 pivot has shifted momentum from accumulation to distribution, with price now testing a confluence of the 200 EMA (45-minute chart) and horizontal support that held between August 12-15. Technical and on-chain picture UNI’s loss of structure comes alongside a bearish RSI divergence and rejection from overbought territory, the RSI is now drifting in the low-to-mid 30s, indicating weak demand on intraday bounces. Price sits beneath stacked resistance from the 50-EMA ($10.75) and 100-EMA ($10.89), meaning bulls must reclaim those levels to delay further downside. Spot order flow data confirms the shift, with approximately $25M in net exchange inflows on August 15 (the largest injection in over six months) consistent with aggressive liquidation and profit-taking rather than accumulation. Uniswap price dynamics (Source: TradingView) On a higher-timeframe structure, Uniswap is trading within a broader range spanning $9.40-11.90 and is currently sitting mid-range around $10.40. This zone represents a low-volume node on the volume profile, which often produces fast moves either back toward $11.00 or down toward mean reversion near $9.60 when momentum builds. If the bulls cannot reclaim the $10.75-10.89 EMA cluster, a sweep of range-lows becomes increasingly likely. A close above $11.20 would be required to shift bias back in favor of recovery targeting $12. Fundamentals and market outlook Sentiment has cooled after UNI’s 87% 90-day rally, as early optimism around fee-switch activation has faded in the face of “sell-the-news” dynamics post Flashblocks integration. Sector rotation has amplified downside, with traders rotating back into BTC ( BTC-USD ) and ETH ( ETH-USD ) as DeFi TVL loses traction and the altcoin season index pulls back. Even so, governance outcomes around the fee switch remain a powerful medium-term catalyst; routing protocol fees to UNI holders would enhance value capture if approved. Regulatory shifts are incrementally constructive, with softer SEC tone following the Ripple ( XRP-USD ) judgment lowering headline tail risk for leading DeFi tokens. Uni’s strategic push into Unichain, a multichain, Layer-2 aligned architecture, also positions it competitively against emerging rivals such as Coinbase’s ( COIN ) Base and Osmosis ( OSMO-USD ). Analysts expect that should governance progress toward revenue share and gasless trading integration, a valuation re-rating may emerge into Q4. In earlier analysis, price holding above $10.80-11.00 was seen as critical to maintaining bullish structure - that threshold has now failed, putting focus on whether $10.30 can hold to avoid a flush toward $9.60-9.40 liquidity. This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer . While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity , this post may contain references to products from our partners. Original Post
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