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2026-01-30 09:12:09

Apple Stock Forecast: 16% Revenue Jump Backs $265 Call

The fiscal Q1 2026 results blew past expectations: revenue hit $143.8 billion (a 16% year-over-year jump) with earnings of $2.84 per share, handily beating analyst estimates of ~$138.5B and $2.67. This was Apple’s best quarter ever, fueled by staggering iPhone demand – iPhone sales reached $85 billion, an all-time high. The Services division also notched a milestone $30 billion in revenue (up ~15% YoY), underscoring Apple’s growing ecosystem of App Store, subscriptions, and other services. Those stellar results put to rest worries about demand, especially in China. Apple’s sales in Greater China surged 38% YoY to about $25.5B, far above consensus, as the iPhone 17 lineup saw “unprecedented” demand in that market. CEO Tim Cook highlighted that “iPhone had its best-ever quarter driven by unprecedented demand, with all-time records across every geographic segment”, thanks in part to a rebound in China. Globally, Apple’s installed base grew to over 2.5 billion active devices, a new high that speaks to the company’s deep customer loyalty. Not every segment was rosy, Mac revenue dipped ~7% and Wearables (which include Apple Watch and AirPods) slipped ~2% amid tough comparisons and supply constraints. However, those declines were marginal in the context of Apple’s “staggering” iPhone growth and Services strength, which together now make up over 80% of revenue. Major product launches in late 2025 (like the iPhone 17 family and new Apple Watches) clearly paid off in Q1, positioning Apple well entering 2026. APPL Analysis: Trend Turning Up from Oversold? Apple price chart (Source: TradingView) Apple’s daily stock chart highlights that shares had been trading in a downward-sloping channel in recent weeks. After peaking near $290 in late 2025, AAPL underwent a healthy correction. The stock bottomed around $246 on Jan. 20, 2026, where it touched the lower bound of its falling trend channel and became deeply oversold (the 14-day RSI had fallen into the low teens). From that pivot low, Apple has rebounded roughly +4-5% , closing at $258.01 on Jan. 29. Importantly, trading volume spiked during this rebound, indicating fresh buying interest as the stock climbed off its lows. From a technical standpoint, Apple’s picture has improved significantly in late January, though some caution remains. The stock is now sitting roughly mid-channel within its downward trend – it’s no longer at the lows, but still trading below key resistance levels. Several positive technical signals have emerged: for instance, a buy signal on the MACD (a momentum indicator) flashed as the stock turned up from the Jan. 20 pivot. Volume support in the mid-$250s appears strong as well (many shares changed hands around $255, creating a base). On the flip side, some overhangs persist. $265 is a pivotal barrier: a breakout above that would likely trigger additional buy signals and signal a true trend reversal, whereas failure to break it could keep Apple in a consolidative mode. Support levels to watch include roughly $253–255 and around $246 (the January bottom and channel support). In summary, Apple’s technical trend is at a potential inflection point: the stock has bounced off oversold levels and is showing early bullish signals, but needs to clear a bit more overhead resistance to fully flip the script to an uptrend. 7-Day Outlook Over the next week, Apple’s stock appears poised to maintain an upward bias, barring any unexpected shocks. The combination of a blowout earnings report and an improving technical setup could attract short-term traders and momentum investors. It wouldn’t be surprising to see AAPL retest the ~$265 resistance in the coming days – that level corresponds to the upper portion of its recent downtrend channel. Positive post-earnings sentiment supports this scenario: there’s clear enthusiasm from investors digesting Apple’s record quarter, which may fuel additional buying in the near term. Moreover, the broader market backdrop is relatively stable. The Federal Reserve’s late-January meeting held interest rates steady and noted a “solid” economy with diminished inflation risks. Such a steady macro environment (with rates on pause and potential rate cuts later in 2026) is generally favorable for tech stocks like Apple . In the immediate term, traders will want to watch for volatility around that $265 zone – if Apple breaks decisively above it on strong volume, it could spark a mini-rally as technical traders jump in. A successful breakout might target the next psychological level around $270+ in the very short run. On the other hand, if the stock stalls below resistance, some profit-taking could occur given the ~5% rebound Apple just experienced. In that case, support in the mid-$250s (around $254–258) should cushion any pullback. This area has the rising 20-day moving average and recent volume support, meaning buyers may step in on dips. Overall, the 7-day outlook leans bullish: Apple has the wind at its back from fundamentals, and technically it is closer to a breakout than a breakdown. Barring any negative news, a gradual grind upward is anticipated in the next week, as traders remain cautiously optimistic and focused on whether Apple can close the week above that key $265 level.

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