The US trade deficit jumped 94.6% in November to $56.8 billion, nearly doubling from the previous month and marking the biggest monthly spike since 1992, according to the Commerce Department. The shortfall blew past every economist’s estimate in Bloomberg’s survey. This sudden surge ended a streak of improvement, where October had shown the smallest deficit since 2009. Behind the spike was a 5% increase in imports, paired with a 3.6% drop in exports. The import surge was led by a rise in shipments of pharmaceuticals, computers, and semiconductors, while the export decline came from a sharp fall in outbound non-monetary gold. These swings came as markets reacted to the Trump administration’s on-again, off-again stance on tariffs. For the second time in recent months, global traders rushed to ship or delay goods based on White House policy noise. Pharma imports and falling gold exports hit trade balance Inbound pharmaceutical shipments soared, while gold exports slid hard. That combination alone dealt a heavy blow to the trade balance. Add in capital goods like chips and machines, and the weight of rising imports was clear. These figures aren’t adjusted for inflation, which means the real volume might be even higher. Meanwhile, total exports slumped by 3.6% across both goods and services. That included falling foreign demand for certain American-made products, and fewer international purchases of gold, which has seen strange swings due to the tariff war. The trade deficit , though worse in November, is still smaller compared to some recent years. Cutting that gap remains one of Donald Trump’s key economic goals, but the latest data show that’s not exactly on track. Economists at Wells Fargo, Shannon Grein and Tim Quinlan, said the manufacturing shift Trump hoped for hasn’t taken off. “There has been little indication yet of a large onshoring of manufacturing operations in the wake of tariffs,” they wrote. “Import growth will likely recover somewhat this year as businesses rebuild some inventory to meet demand.” Deficits with China and Canada grow while Mexico gap shrinks The country’s deficit with China and Canada got worse in November, while the shortfall with Mexico narrowed just a bit. On an inflation-adjusted basis, which affects GDP calculations, the merchandise deficit widened to $87.1 billion, the highest in four months. That measure leaves out most gold trades, unless the metal is used for industrial stuff like jewelry. Economists will use these figures to refine fourth-quarter GDP forecasts. Before the release, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model predicted net exports would add 1.88 percentage points to Q4 growth. That’s now up for review. Also, jobless claims data came in flat for the week, with continuing claims falling to their lowest level since September 2024. Oil prices climbed more than 2% on the same day as the report, as President Donald Trump weighed military action against Iran, an OPEC member. That added more volatility to markets already reacting to trade data. World Bank, IMF say U.S. economy shows unexpected strength Despite the latest deficit numbers, global experts still see surprising momentum in the U.S. economy. Ayhan Kose, deputy chief economist at the World Bank, said the U.S. is growing faster than many expected after several global shocks. “We need to increasingly think whether the economy’s potential growth has been increasing,” Kose said. The World Bank estimates the U.S. grew 2.1% in 2025, bringing the average growth since 2022 to 2.6%. That’s higher than the 2.2% average from 2010 to 2020. It excludes 2021, when the economy shot up 6.2% after the Covid lockdowns. The current potential growth rate, a rough estimate of how fast the economy can run without heating up inflation, sits at 1.8%, per the Congressional Budget Office. Kose said that may be outdated. With strong investment, rising productivity, and ongoing fiscal support, he suggested the real number might be 2.2% or even 2.4%. The World Bank sees a small pickup in 2026, forecasting 2.2% growth, while BNP Paribas expects 2.9%. “There is a lot of momentum in the U.S. economy,” said Isabelle Mateos y Lago, chief economist at BNP. She warned the productivity jump in 2025 might be short-lived due to slow hiring. But if it lasts, it could be a sign of global trends. The IMF added that new tech, including AI, could lift global growth by 0.1 to 0.8 points per year in the medium term. “It would lift global growth above prepandemic levels if it happens,” said Kristalina Georgieva, head of the IMF. The idea is simple: if the U.S. keeps expanding, it pulls other economies along. More demand from America means more exports for everyone else. That boost, even with high tariffs, would ripple across the world. “That has huge implications for the global economy,” Kose said. “You basically have this largest economy doing very well despite the fact that it has been buffeted by a number of shocks. That also helps the global economy.” If you're reading this, you’re already ahead. Stay there with our newsletter .
