Next Major Move In Bitcoin May Be Down (Technical Analysis)

Summary Bitcoin is rated a Sell for the next 12 months due to dramatically weaker upside momentum since June, diverging with new price highs. Unusually low daily trading volume for months could indicate an exhaustion in buying interest. Gold has outperformed Bitcoin by a large degree in 2025 and proven a better investment since November 2021 for price gains. Peer cryptocurrencies have lagged badly this year, which could be a warning of future trouble for Bitcoin. I want to start off this article by saying that I have never owned Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) long. I have shorted it on occasion, like I have done over the past few weeks. I am currently holding the ProShares Short Bitcoin ETF ( BITI ), which I discussed in an article during February here . You can take advantage of contract premiums (contango) sold in the futures market through BITI, where you essentially pocket extra proceeds given a flat Bitcoin spot quote. Plus, if the world's top cryptocurrency declines, investing income will be your bonus reward. At the core of my decision-making process to avoid cryptos is I don't understand how you put a value on them for price. For example, is Bitcoin worth $1 or $100,000 (and why)? I have yet to find a satisfactory answer to this basic question. So, I generally just avoid the sector. Yet, I do enjoy trading assets using technical charts and underlying momentum indicators to gauge the health of any investment. In my research, using 39 years of trading experience, Bitcoin's weak momentum price advance during the middle of 2025 looks doomed to fail. How much lower will Bitcoin decline in the months ahead? I honestly do not know. What my research suggests is a lower price regime is coming, perhaps even a major dump in value. (As a trader, you can take quick gains in BITI, like I did during Bitcoin's correction phase during late February and March.) Anyway, let me explain my latest bearishness on Bitcoin after reviewing a number of chart-related ideas. In terms of a peak in crypto excitement with President Trump pushing the sector this year, it's entirely possible we are outlining a long-term top in Bitcoin. Consequently, I am shifting to a Sell rating on this leading crypto invention for a 12-month outlook. Fading Buy Momentum On a daily trading chart, the first thing you will notice is the monster drop in volume each session, starting in May (boxed in blue below). As opposed to the high-volume buying advance after the November election into early February, the absence of follow-through is a major warning flag to me. Markets (especially booms) tend to run out of gas on low volume like this summer. Other momentum concerns are found in a variety of momentum indicators. I have circled in gold high readings in the Negative Volume Index , On Balance Volume , and the 13-day Force Index . All reached their buying pressure zeniths between November and February. The conclusion is we have all kinds of non-confirmation (divergent) signals vs. the price highs achieved since June. StockCharts - US$ Bitcoin, Daily Price & Volume, 2 Years, Author References Another issue is Bitcoin's performance has been fading vs. hard money gold since 2021. When we draw a chart comparing price performance between the two asset classes (both considered alternative money to paper currencies), gold has rather sharply "outperformed" Bitcoin since December. In other words, investors are rushing to gold, not the world's main cryptocurrency, in 2025's turbulent geopolitical backdrop. StockCharts - US$ Bitcoin vs. Gold, Relative Daily Price Change, 5 Years When we look purely at the volume necessary to move price a set amount (largely ignoring time increments), a standard 1-year Renko chart design also highlights a rather stark lack of net buying interest since late May. I have boxed in gold the situations where up vs. down volume has not made any real "net" progress. The last instance of greater selling volumes vs. buying took place between December and April (also boxed in gold). Price corrected -25% during this span. StockCharts - US$ Bitcoin, Standard Renko Chart, 1 Year, Author References Finally, when we review price alone, ignoring volume and time movements, the point and figure chart outlined a sell signal last week. With Bitcoin's price dropping below US$112,000, something of a vacuum for support may now exist. StockCharts - US$ Bitcoin, Point & Figure Chart, Since June 2025 Final Thoughts Bitcoin has been one of the top cryptocurrencies to own since the November 2021 peak for the sector and again since Trump 2.0 was inaugurated in January. If the sector had decided to turn lower now, after failing to break the highs of four years ago as a group, we have another drag on Bitcoin's future performance to contemplate. YCharts - US$ Bitcoin vs. Major Cryptocurrencies, Price Change, Since November 1st, 2021 YCharts - US$ Bitcoin vs. Major Cryptocurrencies, Price Change, Since January 21st, 2025 Many of my regular readers know I am something of a gold bug, advocating for a return to hard money for currency protection (with stable inflation rates closer to ZERO as a goal). Bitcoin has no real backing whatsoever. In the battle for safety and wealth preservation, gold has a history of thousands of years of success. Bitcoin remains relatively untested after less than 17 years in existence. Gold needs no internet or electricity or computer or encryption or password to function as money accepted all over the world; Bitcoin does. My momentum-based research highlights Bitcoin as a Sell currently, where any mass liquidation event (caused by an encryption hack, or a liquidity crisis in the financial markets including escalating selling of cryptos, or a simple change of heart by investors/holders of Bitcoin) could send the U.S. dollar exchange price dramatically lower. I am short Bitcoin through BITI, but only in minor amounts of my portfolio. I believe selling/limiting your exposure to Bitcoin (and other cryptocurrencies) may be the prudent course of action into early 2026. The lack of buying interest/volume to confirm this summer's price highs should have serious holders of Bitcoin more than a little worried that incredibly bullish sentiment and all-time high prices are susceptible to a wave of selling. Of course, with the financial sector's plunge into cryptocurrencies over the past 15 years, further upside is possible, assuming the U.S. dollar's days are numbered as the globe's "reserve" currency. Movements of central bank holdings into gold, and perhaps Bitcoin, could keep the price above $100,000 for years to come. This more bullish scenario might arise after a short-term correction of -10% to -20% over the coming months. Thanks for reading. Please consider this article a first step in your due diligence process. Consulting with a registered and experienced investment advisor is recommended before making any trade.