Crypto-linked stocks saw strong upward movement on Friday as traders reacted to a sharp rise in prediction-market forecasts pointing to a December interest-rate cut. The odds listed on Polymarket rose to 87% — the highest level recorded this month — and that shift in expectations drove renewed appetite for crypto-exposed equities. Several U.S.-listed Bitcoin miners led the day’s advance. Cleanspark, Riot Platforms and Cipher Mining each recorded gains during Friday’s session, adding to a streak of double-digit increases over the previous five days. Circle, the issuer of USDC, also made notable progress with nearly a 10% jump in early trading. Strategy, backed by Michael Saylor, alongside Coinbase, logged more modest increases but still participated in the broader market move. Bitcoin itself added around 7% over the past week after briefly dipping to roughly $82,000 on Nov. 21. Interest-Rate Commentary Drives Market Volatility The rapid swings in prediction-market pricing throughout November have largely been tied to comments from Federal Reserve officials. On Oct. 29, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that a December rate cut was “not a foregone conclusion,” which investors interpreted as a hawkish signal. That single remark led to prediction-market odds collapsing from 89% the previous day to around 22% by Nov. 20. The sentiment reversal began on Nov. 17 after Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated the central bank should actively consider a rate cut next month. He argued that “the labor market is still weak and near stall speed” and that inflation appeared “relatively close” to the Fed’s 2% target. The remarks immediately reshaped expectations and helped drive the latest price rally in crypto-linked assets. Prediction Markets Gain Influence Across Industries Prediction markets have expanded significantly this year as more companies and investors embrace the model. Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi have attracted users by allowing wagers on political developments, financial outcomes and major global events. Polymarket recently secured a multi-year partnership to act as the official prediction-market platform for both the UFC and Zuffa Boxing. The company has also grown through other strategic partnerships that broaden the use of prediction contracts across entertainment and sports. Meanwhile, Kalshi has continued its own expansion after attracting major investment rounds that substantially increased its valuation. Both platforms have reported surging user activity as traders increasingly use prediction markets to anticipate economic decisions, including those from the Federal Reserve. Trading Apps Join the Prediction-Market Trend The rapid rise of prediction markets has also caught the attention of larger trading platforms. Robinhood recently confirmed that prediction markets have become one of its fastest-growing revenue categories. The platform said that more than one million users have already traded billions of contracts since the feature launched earlier this year. Rumors have also circulated that Coinbase is developing a prediction-market platform of its own, following the appearance of early interface images. The acceleration of these platforms underscores a broader trend: traders across traditional and crypto markets are relying more heavily on probabilistic pricing tools to interpret and react to policy shifts. As expectations for a December rate cut climb, crypto-linked stocks appear positioned to remain sensitive to any new signals from the Federal Reserve.
