Polymarket and Kalshi are widening their reach into web3 and global venues as both companies chase money, regulators, and sports partners at a pace that feels more like a sprint than a strategy. This story began, according to Bloomberg, with a private dinner high above New York’s financial district where Intercontinental Exchange CEO Jeffrey Sprecher met Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan. Jeffrey arrived in a suit. Shayne walked in wearing a T‑shirt, holding a disposable water bottle and a bakery bag. Jeffrey had never used the crypto-powered prediction market because it was closed to U.S. users at the time, but Shayne explained the vision of letting people bet on politics, sports, culture, and anything else. Jeffrey said, “In 20 minutes, I realized they were onto something,” and added, “What they had designed was very profound.” ICE later committed up to $2 billion, one of several large prediction‑market deals announced in recent months. The spike in deals pushed these platforms into the center of a debate over event contracts, which allow wagers on outcomes in real-world events. Investors and traders are betting these contracts can run around old gambling rules and operate as financial instruments. That debate played out in Chicago during a major derivatives gathering where Tarek Mansour, the CEO of Kalshi, said prediction markets could grow into a “trillion‑dollar” industry. As these claims spread, major exchanges, gambling firms, crypto companies, venture funds, pro sports leagues, and even President Donald Trump’s family business started trying to secure their own deals inside this legal gray zone. Competing for sports leagues and investors Shayne and Tarek pushed their companies into a direct fight when both tried to secure a partnership with the National Hockey League, which explored becoming the first U.S. sports league to work with prediction platforms. Bloomberg claimed that both companies paid to lock in the arrangement. The recent agreements have pushed Kalshi to offers that value the company at more than $10 billion, far above its $2 billion valuation in June. Polymarket is raising funds too and now targets a valuation above $12 billion, more than 10 times its worth months earlier. Before ICE backed Polymarket, there were informal conversations between ICE and Kalshi, but nothing came from them. At the same time, critics are raising alarms about the scale of betting. Law professor Melinda Roth said, “This is a mess for so many reasons,” warning that people may gamble money they cannot afford to lose. State gaming agencies and Native American tribes are filing legal challenges, saying these platforms are moving over rules designed to keep players safe. Two state regulators, who asked that their names not be used, said they worry prediction markets could expand so fast that oversight becomes impossible. Investor Chris Grove said, “If there’s enough institutional support and political support, everyone has just sort of spoken about the way they want the world to be.” Sports apps, Trump’s involvement and new marketing deals Trading volume on prediction markets remains small compared to traditional exchanges, but big players want in. CME Group CEO Terry Duffy visited Flutter Entertainment’s New York office early in the year to pitch a partnership. Terry said, “I had been watching the retail revolution for years and was particularly interested in its evolution into sports.” That talk led to a partnership and the upcoming FanDuel Predicts app. DraftKings CEO Jason Robins questioned at a recent event whether event contracts can beat normal sports betting, but DraftKings still bought a regulated venue called Railbird to offer its own contracts. Penn Entertainment CEO Jay Snowden called prediction markets a “major threat to the industry” and said, “We’ve got to play some offense here.” Tensions grew earlier in the year when Kalshi started offering sports contracts soon after winning a case that allowed election‑related trading. Some regulators said sports contracts broke state gambling rules. Kalshi argued its products were financial instruments regulated by the CFTC, not subject to state gambling laws. The CFTC has not stepped in. Meanwhile, the Trump family moved deeper into the space. Donald Trump Jr. became an adviser to both Polymarket and Kalshi, and Trump Media negotiated with Crypto.com to launch Truth Predict, a deal shaped by CEO Devin Nunes. Polymarket had its own hurdles. It had been blocked from serving U.S. users since a 2022 settlement, but regulators ended their investigations in July. To enter the U.S. legally, the company bought QCX, a small derivatives venue, for $112 million. Both Polymarket and Kalshi are building marketing deals.PrizePicks will distribute their contracts. Polymarket is working with UFC to show fan predictions on broadcasts. Tarek said more sports deals and major news partnerships are coming. A Nevada judge recently questioned Kalshi’s sports contracts, and academics pointed to “artificial trading” on Polymarket. Cboe launched its own prediction‑market platform but said it will avoid sports. Leagues are cautious, especially after new Justice Department actions, but the NHL became the first major league to partner with both companies. To celebrate the UFC deal, Shayne joined Jeffrey on the New York Stock Exchange floor to ring the opening bell. Get seen where it counts. Advertise in Cryptopolitan Research and reach crypto’s sharpest investors and builders.
