Bitcoin just watched new investors dump 148,000 coins as the price cracked below $100,000, bleeding through key cost bases. Now, as that capitulation hits the tape, long-term cycle signals and on-chain bands line up to test how deep this reset can go. Retail Bitcoin Holders Dump 148K BTC as Price Breaks Below Key Cost Bases Retail-linked Bitcoin holders dumped about 148,241 BTC at a loss on Nov. 14 as the price slid below $100,000 and under several realized price bands, according to on-chain data from CryptoQuant. Holders Net Daily Change. Source: CryptoQuant The metrics show that wallets often associated with newer or smaller investors, grouped as holders with less than 1 million BTC, turned sharply net negative on the day. The selling hit while Bitcoin traded near $96,853, well below the group’s estimated cost basis between roughly $102,000 and $107,000. The move marked one of the largest single-day net outflows for these addresses in recent months. At the same time, realized price curves for younger UTXO age bands flipped above spot. The realized prices for coins held between one day and one week, one week and one month, and up to one year now stand higher than the market price. That structure indicates that many recent buyers are underwater, a condition that often coincides with heavier pressure from short-term holders. Bitcoin Realized Price UTXO Age Bands. Source: CryptoQuant/X The break of the $100,000 level added a psychological layer to the on-chain stress. Once spot fell through both the round-number mark and the realized ranges of recent entrants, selling accelerated as investors moved to cut losses. The outflow reflects a wave of capitulation from buyers who entered near the peak and chose to exit rather than face a deeper drawdown. Despite the pain for those sellers, the same data set shows that other market participants absorbed the coins. The transfer from short-term, loss-making holders to counterparties still willing to buy below $100,000 highlights a shift in ownership as Bitcoin tests new support levels after the flush. Bitcoin Tests Cycle Markers as Price Falls Below Key Bands Bitcoin is moving through levels that previously marked the end of major market cycles, according to new chart data shared by Mister Crypto and Glassnode analyst Ali. As price trades under $98,650, both long-term technical patterns and MVRV deviation bands highlight support zones that historically defined cyclical bottoms. Mister Crypto’s visual comparison shows the same signal repeating at the close of the 2014, 2017, and 2021 cycles: a monthly death cross between the 20-month and 50-month moving averages. Each occurrence aligned with a prolonged downturn before markets reset. The 2025 chart now shows the same cross forming again as Bitcoin pulls back from its recent peak, placing the current correction in line with prior cycle-end structures. Bitcoin Cycle Death Cross. Source: Mister Crypto At the same time, on-chain data from Glassnode shows price slipping below the mean MVRV deviation band at $98,650. Once that band breaks, the next statistically defined levels sit at $75,740, $56,160, and $52,820. Those ranges mark deeper points where market value historically reconnected with realized fundamentals during extended corrections. As of Nov. 16, Bitcoin trades near $94,394, while realized price stands at about $56,156. Bitcoin MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands. Source: Glassnode, Ali Charts Together, the long-term moving-average cross and MVRV deviation markers indicate that Bitcoin is entering the same technical environment that shaped previous four-year cycle resets. The data shows price now navigating zones that have repeatedly acted as structural support when prior bull markets transitioned into consolidation phases.
