Bitcoin is slipping behind U.S. Treasuries on one-year returns just as retail interest hits bear-market levels. Yet order books, long-term charts and past pullbacks show deep bids and familiar volatility patterns beneath the surface. Bitcoin Trails U.S. Treasuries on One-Year Performance Chart Bitcoin is now lagging U.S. Treasuries over the past year, according to new data from Barchart. A comparative chart of Bitcoin versus the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) shows Treasuries holding a small gain while Bitcoin has slipped into negative territory on a 12-month basis. Bitcoin vs Treasuries Performance Chart. Source: Barchart The chart indicates long-duration Treasuries are up roughly 3% over the period, while Bitcoin is down about 3% after giving back a mid-year rally. As a result, the traditionally safer bond proxy has outperformed the leading cryptocurrency during a stretch marked by shifting expectations for U.S. interest rates and risk assets. Analyst Highlights Bitcoin’s History of Steep but Routine Bull-Market Pullbacks A separate chart from analyst Rajat Soni adds context to Bitcoin’s latest slide, showing that sharp drawdowns have repeatedly appeared during past bull cycles. He noted that Bitcoin fell from about $126,000 to $94,000 since mid-October, a drop of roughly 25.5%. Bitcoin Bull Market Pullbacks. Source: Rajat Soni Historical weekly data on the chart illustrates multiple declines of 20% to 38% during the 2016–2017 uptrend. Each pullback appeared inside a broader rising structure, underscoring how deep retracements often occurred before the market continued higher. The chart marks at least six such corrections, all within the same multi-year advance. Soni said these moves fit Bitcoin’s typical bull-market profile, where volatility compresses and expands through each leg of the trend. Therefore, he framed the current drop as consistent with past behavior rather than an outlier, noting that similar declines have previously appeared ahead of renewed strength. Bitcoin Search Interest Falls Back to Bear-Market Levels A separate signal from Google Trends shows retail attention fading even as Bitcoin weathers its latest correction. Brian Rose, founder and host of London Real, highlighted that global searches for “Bitcoin” have dropped to their lowest level in a year. Bitcoin Search Interest Levels. Source: Google Trends / X The chart tracks interest over time and now places current readings near levels last seen during prior bear markets. That pattern suggests far fewer casual or first-time participants are searching for Bitcoin compared with the spikes seen near past price peaks. Rose noted that similar periods of low search interest have often preceded later rallies, as markets rebuild away from crowded, hype-driven phases. In this view, subdued retail attention lines up with the idea that recent volatility may be unfolding in a quieter stage of the broader cycle. Buy Walls Rebuild as Bitcoin Pullback Fits Long-Term Uptrend Fresh order book data shows buyers stepping back in after Bitcoin’s slide into the mid-$90,000 range. Analyst Crypto Patel noted that traders who sold near $102,000–$106,000 are now rebuying, with dense buy walls clustered between $90,000 and $95,000 on Binance. That band is emerging as a key zone where dip demand is starting to absorb supply. Bitcoin Buy Walls Around 90K to 95K. Source: Crypto Patel At the same time, a weekly chart shared by 0xMo.eth places the move inside a broader rising structure. The long-term view still shows higher lows and a staircase pattern of corrections followed by advances, even after the latest drop. Bitcoin Weekly Trend Structure. Source: 0xMo.eth Taken together, heavy bids on spot books and the intact weekly trend suggest the current volatility remains part of Bitcoin’s existing cycle rather than a clear break of its larger path, while macro forces such as equity moves still set the backdrop for the next leg.
