Seeking Alpha
2025-10-01 08:51:42

Why SharpLink Gaming Is My #1 Ethereum Bet Right Now

Summary SharpLink Gaming has transformed into a major Ethereum treasury, holding over 838,000 ETH and trading near its net asset value. SBET offers direct, institutional-grade Ethereum exposure with staking yield, transparent reporting, and a world-class leadership team blending crypto and Wall Street expertise. Trading at ~1x mNAV, SBET provides downside protection regarding the mNAV multiple and upside optionality if market sentiment drives a premium to NAV, enabling accretive ETH/share growth. SBET is rated a Buy for long-term Ethereum bulls, offering a compelling vehicle to benefit from ETH’s growth, staking rewards, and potential sentiment-driven re-rating. Buybacks can help keep the stock from dropping too far below 1.0x mNAV, and they're also accretive to ETH per share when done under mNAV. SharpLink Gaming ( SBET ) had a makeover this year, going from a small sports-betting affiliate platform into a large Ethereum ( ETH-USD ) treasury company. It all started on May 27, when the company announced a $425 million private placement to begin its Ethereum strategy. This strategy has led SharpLink to raise plenty of money, allowing it to buy ~839K ETH, worth $3.5 billion, making it the 2nd-largest ETH treasury company out there. Top 10 ETH Treasury Companies (coingecko.com) Now, based on the most recent share price of $17.26, SBET trades at around 1.02x its fully diluted market-cap-to-net-asset-value (mNAV), which I think is a great valuation for investors seeking Ethereum exposure, and it likely won't stay at this level forever. This valuation essentially gives investors direct exposure to Ethereum at almost no premium while also offering the opportunity to benefit from improved sentiment in the future. A long-term investment in SBET only makes sense if you're bullish on Ethereum for the long term. I assume that most readers of this article are bullish on Ethereum, as am I, but if you'd like to know more of my thoughts on the cryptocurrency, you can read my recent article titled "ETH: Stablecoins And Tokenization Could Reshape Finance." Overall, SBET is a Buy at ~1x mNAV, which is much lower than Bitmine Immersion Technologies' ( BMNR ) estimated mNAV of 1.38x . SBET is set to benefit from the rise of ETH and a sentiment boost that would come with it, which should lead the stock to trade at a higher premium to mNAV sometime in the future. The company would then be able to issue shares at a premium to buy ETH, leading to ETH per share accretion. The company is also led by a world-class team with deep roots in both Ethereum and Wall Street, and it generates extra money from staking its Ether. Moreover, SharpLink already has a buyback program in place that can help provide a support level for the mNAV multiple, making it attractive. Ethereum's Key Long-Term Catalysts To be bullish on SBET is to be bullish on Ethereum. I wrote about Ethereum just last week (more specifically, the article was about the Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust ETF ( ETH )), but I'll briefly recap what I said. Two key catalysts I mentioned for Ethereum were the growth in stablecoin usage and the growth in tokenization. I mentioned that $172.33 billion worth of stablecoins were circulating on Ethereum as of September 22, which was a 79.8% year-over-year increase. This number has already grown to $175.25 billion as of September 28, or an 82.7% year-over-year increase compared to September 28, 2024. The year-over-year growth rate is accelerating, and the GENIUS Act, signed into law on July 18, is what kick-started that acceleration. Total Ethereum Stablecoin Supply As Of September 28, 2025 (theblock.co) I also mentioned that Ethereum had a 61.6% market share in the stablecoin market based on the $172.33 billion in stablecoins on Ethereum compared to the total stablecoin supply of $279.65 billion. Interestingly, while it's only been a week, Ethereum is maintaining its strength, as its market share is now 62% as of September 28. This is based on the total stablecoin supply of $282.73 billion. Total Stablecoin Supply As Of September 28, 2025 (theblock.co) Furthermore, I noted two big projections for stablecoins: 1) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's projection of a $3.7 trillion stablecoin market by the end of this decade and 2) McKinsey's prediction that "daily transaction volumes using stablecoins could reach at least $250 billion in the next three years." The next catalyst is the tokenization of real-world assets. In my Ethereum article, I mentioned that Franklin Templeton and BlackRock ( BLK ) have launched tokenized Treasury funds on Ethereum, and I highlighted Standard Chartered's projection that the overall tokenized asset market could reach $30 trillion by 2034. An article from mid-August stated that "Ethereum hosts approximately 55% of all tokenized asset AUM," so a $30 trillion market could benefit the Ethereum market in a big way if it maintains a healthy market share. 5 Reasons To Buy SBET Stock Of course, you could just buy an Ethereum ETF and get 1:1 exposure as Ethereum fluctuates. Or you can buy SBET, which holds Ethereum. But why SBET? Well, put simply, SBET trades near its mNAV, but it has a good chance of trading well above its mNAV in crypto bull markets (just like Strategy stock ( MSTR )), while Ethereum ETFs (or Ether itself) don't. SBET also has five ways it can increase its ETH exposure over time, if all things go according to plan. These five methods are stated below. SBET's Active Treasury Management Strategy (SBET's Investor Presentation July 31, 2025) Now, let's talk about why the valuation is attractive. 1. Relatively Low Valuation As of September 21, SharpLink held 838,728 ETH (all of it is staked ), giving it an ETH NAV of $3.51 billion and a fully diluted mNAV of 1.02x based on its current enterprise value of $3.59 billion. This means you can buy SharpLink stock at the value of its holdings, give or take. Compared to BMNR stock, which trades at an estimated 1.38x mNAV, that's a bargain, but it's worth noting that I'm also bullish on BMNR for the long term. You can read about that here . SBET's ETH Dashboard Metrics (sharplink.com) Sure, BMNR is the largest of the ETH treasury companies, so a premium over SBET is arguably warranted, but that doesn't mean SBET is not worth buying at around 1x. Additionally, SBET isn't doomed to stay at this level forever. It can easily move to higher levels during euphoric periods. A July 18 Seeking Alpha article from Mike Fay calculated that " SBET stock trades at almost 4x the value of its ETH holdings," which goes to show how momentum can swing a stock higher than it needs to be. The stock has fallen 53.3% since then, and if you bought the stock at ~4x its ETH holdings, that's on you. Even MSTR's market cap was almost 3x higher than the value of its Bitcoin holdings when I called the top last November . But ~1x mNAV is a different story, providing upside potential. 2. Buybacks Can Provide mNAV Support Notably, SBET has a big $1.5 billion buyback program in place, and it already bought back some shares recently. On September 9, the company repurchased 939,000 shares at an average price of $15.98 and intends to continue buying back shares based on market conditions . SBET actually bought back another 1 million shares on September 16 at an average price of $16.67, and it can keep doing so using its cash, revenue generated from staking, or other financing options. This is great because as soon as the stock starts trading at under 1x mNAV, SharpLink can buy back shares at a discount, which would actually increase ETH per share. It can also help the stock not go too much under 1.0x. Importantly, the company mentioned that it won't issue shares while it's trading under mNAV, as " doing so would be dilutive on an ETH per share basis," so it's clear that the company knows how to allocate capital. 3. ETH Per Share Should Grow Faster With SBET Than Just Holding An ETH ETF As mentioned above, SBET has several ways it can increase its ETH exposure. Both the ability to raise equity at a premium to mNAV and the ability to repurchase shares below mNAV will contribute to an increase in ETH per share over time, compared to just buying an ETH ETF, which won't be managing its treasury like that. It's worth noting that just a few days ago, on September 25, SharpLink announced that it increased the total number of shares it's legally allowed to issue. The old limit was 500 million shares of common stock, but now, it can issue 2.5 billion shares , or ~$43 billion worth if we're using the most recent share price of $17.26. Compared to its market cap of less than $4 billion, that's huge. There's a lot of potential for ETH per share accretion if the mNAV climbs to a favorable level. If you're confused about how dilution above mNAV can lead to ETH per share accretion, here's the example I included in my BMNR article: Suppose ABC company has $100 million worth of Ethereum and 10 million shares outstanding, giving it a NAV of $10 per share (assuming it has no other holdings). If ABC's stock price is $15 and it issues 1 million new shares at that price, it would receive $15 million in proceeds. Then, that money would go towards buying more Ethereum. The treasury then would be worth $115 million, spread across 11 million shares, which would raise the NAV from $10 to about $10.45 per share. Next, the company will also generate staking rewards, and it stated that ETH generates a real yield of ~3%. These staking rewards are earned in ETH, adding to the company's Ethereum holdings. In my BMNR article, I also argued that staking rewards can be treated as income to be added to the company's valuation. In other words, staking alone can justify an mNAV of a bit above 1x. Estimated ETH Yield (SBET's July 31 Investor Presentation) SBET can also issue equity-linked securities, if it can get favorable terms, to buy more ETH or repurchase shares. As of right now, though, SBET has no debt, so the financial situation is good. 4. Experienced Leadership Team Another thing I like is that the company's chairman is Joe Lubin, who co-founded Ethereum and founded Consensys, the software company behind infrastructure like MetaMask, Infura, and the zkEVM Linea. This is a guy who knows the ins and outs of Ethereum. Then, there's Joseph Chalom, SharpLink's co-CEO. He spent 20 years at BlackRock, where he scaled the Aladdin fintech business and later led the firm's digital asset strategy. His bio states that he "built the BlackRock digital asset team and executed its strategy across stablecoins, crypto products (IBIT, ETHA), and tokenization initiatives (BUIDL) through strategic partnerships with Coinbase, Nasdaq, Circle, Securitize, and other ecosystem participants." It seems that SBET has a great blend of technical and institutional expertise. 5. Transparency What I like about SharpLink (and many of these types of companies) is that it updates its ETH holdings weekly, and it also has all the relevant metrics investors need right on ETH dashboard. This level of transparency makes it very easy to follow the valuation, so you can decide whether the stock is overvalued or not. The Risks Some skeptical investors may point to SBET's unprofitable core operations or its lack of free cash flow. Those concerns were valid when SBET was a small marketing company, but now, they're not nearly as relevant since the business model has completely changed. Still, they're worth talking about. The company's TTM free cash flow is -$3.97 million, and its 2024 FCF was negative as well, at -$22.92 million. In fact, the last positive year was in 2019, so the legacy affiliate business is not great. SBET's Free Cash Flow (Finbox) Stock-based compensation is another thing worth considering. Historically, it has been quite negligible ($148.5K in 2024), but SBC ticked up last quarter, coming in at around $16.4 million. However, this was tied to the company's strategic advisory agreement with Consensys . I don't think this will be a recurring expense, but even if it were a recurring expense every quarter, that still would only translate to $65.6 million a year, which is a drop in the bucket compared to its market cap of $3.6 billion. If stock-based compensation ends up soaring for some reason in an unjustified way, then I'll reconsider my stance. But for now, things look good. Some may also worry that the lack of free cash flow can lead to financial strain, especially if the company takes on too much debt. Debt levels (and the interest rates on the debt) are worth monitoring in the future, but as of now, with no debt, it's not a concern. Either way, since the company's expenses aren't that high relative to its market cap, it can easily issue a relatively tiny amount of shares or sell ETH to raise cash. Going forward, I'll also be monitoring whether the company starts to issue shares at a discount to mNAV, as that can be a red flag. But it seems as though management knows not to do that. Finally, the most important risk is the price of ETH itself. As mentioned in my prior articles, ETH has had a big runup recently and is no stranger to 50-80% drawdowns. If you buy SBET, you need to be able to handle extreme volatility. The Bottom Line On SBET Stock The Ethereum network is set to keep growing in the long term, and what makes SharpLink Gaming attractive is its flexibility and optionality in how it can grow ETH per share over time. It can grow ETH per share both when its mNAV is above or below 1.0x. In euphoric times, SBET can issue new shares at a premium and buy more ETH, increasing ETH per share. In bearish periods, it can repurchase shares below mNAV, increasing ETH per share. This doesn't include the other methods, like issuing equity-linked securities at favorable terms. Additionally, the management team's credentials also give me extra confidence in the company. With the stock trading at around 1x mNAV, you have the chance to buy SharpLink at its "fair value," with the chance that at some point in the future, the stock can return to a high premium to mNAV if sentiment picks up. Yes, there are risks, and the stock will be highly correlated to ETH. But if you're bullish on ETH, SBET is an S-tier bet worth taking, and it's my #1 Ethereum bet right now.

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