BitcoinWorld Bitcoin 2025 Outlook: Undervalued vs Gold? JPMorgan Weighs In New Delhi, Aug 30, 2025 — The bitcoin market has entered a quieter, more mature phase in 2025. Price swings have cooled, institutional demand continues through spot ETF channels, and the narrative is shifting from “speculation” to “portfolio allocation.” A recent JPMorgan note captures this shift, arguing that as bitcoin volatility sinks toward historic lows (~30% from ~60% at the start of 2025), BTC screens undervalued versus gold on a volatility-adjusted basis. Why “Undervalued vs Gold” Matters for Bitcoin For years, analysts compared bitcoin to gold as a potential store of value. JPMorgan’s latest framework suggests that with volatility compressing, the risk-adjusted case for BTC strengthens, implying upside to a fair-value band if volatility remains near current levels. Some summaries of the bank’s model suggest a scenario up to $126,000 by year-end 2025 under those assumptions. While not a guarantee, it signals how large allocators may benchmark BTC risk vs. gold. Key takeaways Volatility normalization : 60% → ~30% in 2025, a record low, supports larger institutional position sizes. Relative valuation lens : On a volatility-adjusted basis, JPMorgan argues bitcoin screens cheap vs gold. Scenario analysis : Headlines cite a $126K fair-value scenario if conditions hold. Institutional Flows: The ETF Flywheel Since the launch of U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, the structure has become a primary conduit for mainstream capital. Day-one trading activity topped $4.6 billion across funds, and 2025 has seen continued net inflows, including $1B in a single day in July and one fund racing to ~$80B in assets under management. This “ETF flywheel”—simple access, regulated wrappers, and daily liquidity—has deepened the market. Why this supports price discovery Persistent demand via retirement and wealth platforms. Tighter spreads & deeper liquidity as market-makers compete. Transparent holdings data that helps analysts track flows. Together, these factors can dampen extreme volatility and support bitcoin as a strategic allocation rather than a trade. The Post-Halving Backdrop The April 2024 halving cut the block subsidy to 3.125 BTC , mechanically slowing net supply issuance. Historically, halvings have influenced cycle dynamics, though returns vary by macro regime. In the current cycle, the combination of slower issuance and stronger institutional rails (ETFs, custody) is shaping a different—arguably more mature—market profile. Macro Currents to Watch in H2 2025 Rates & liquidity Lower global rate-volatility typically benefits risk assets. If real yields stabilize or drift lower, the opportunity cost of holding bitcoin vs cash may fall, supporting bids. Regulatory clarity Incremental clarity on market structure and token classification can unlock new allocators (pensions, insurers) who require a defined rulebook before entry. Mainstream outlets have noted how policy expectations have tracked BTC’s move into six figures in 2025. ETF flows & rebalancing Quarterly and year-end rebalances can create lumps in demand/supply through ETFs, potentially amplifying trend moves when combined with shrinking miner sell pressure post-halving. Price Context: From “Wild Ride” to “Measurable Beta” Several 2025 reports highlight that bitcoin’s realized volatility has cooled substantially , even through drawdowns—suggesting a transition from ultra-speculative swings to “measurable beta” sensitive to macro and flows. This doesn’t eliminate risk; it re-frames it. In 2025, BTC has traded near—and at times above—six figures, with mainstream coverage documenting surges past $120,000 earlier in the year on institutional adoption momentum. Bull, Base, and Bear Scenarios (Next 3–6 Months) Bull Case: $115K–$135K Volatility stays ~30% , reinforcing JPMorgan’s relative-value lens vs gold. ETF net inflows persist; wealth-platform distribution widens internationally. Macro benign (softer inflation prints, stable/lower real yields). This cluster of factors could pull bitcoin toward the upper end of JPMorgan-style fair-value scenarios. Base Case: $95K–$115K Volatility remains contained but flows are choppier. Macro is mixed; regulatory progress uneven. Mining sells modestly into strength; ETF demand offsets. Bear Case: $80K–$95K Risk-off macro (growth scare or sharp yield spike). ETF outflows and stronger USD . Volatility re-expands toward prior ranges, weakening the gold-parity argument. Even in this case, structural features (ETF access, post-halving issuance) could help stabilize drawdowns relative to past cycles. Reminder: These are scenarios, not predictions. Crypto assets remain highly volatile and can move rapidly in both directions. Risks & What Could Invalidate the Thesis Macro shock : A policy surprise or liquidity crunch can hit all risk assets at once. Regulatory setbacks : Adverse rulings or delayed approvals that restrict distribution. On-chain/security events : Major protocol or market-infrastructure incidents. Narrative shift : If realized volatility rises again, the “undervalued vs gold” framing weakens. How to Read the JPMorgan Framework (Without the Hype) It’s relative, not absolute — The claim addresses risk-adjusted valuation vs gold given volatility, not a guaranteed price path. It’s conditional — The $126K scenario assumes volatility remains subdued and flows supportive. It’s one lens — ETF flow data, macro liquidity, and halving-era supply dynamics should be tracked alongside it. FAQs: Bitcoin in 2025 Is bitcoin still volatile? Yes—but less than in prior cycles. Several analyses peg current realized volatility near 30% , a multi-year low, versus ~60% in early 2025. Do ETFs really matter? Early data says yes: ETFs created an easy on-ramp, large volumes at launch, and billions in net 2025 inflows—supporting liquidity and broader ownership. Did the 2024 halving help? Halving reduced new supply to 3.125 BTC per block. Its price impact depends on demand (including ETF flows) and macro liquidity. Conclusion The 2025 bitcoin story is about normalization : lower realized volatility, institutional rails via ETFs, and a mainstream risk framework that increasingly compares BTC with gold. JPMorgan’s lens— undervalued vs gold on a volatility-adjusted basis —doesn’t promise outcomes, but it does explain why allocators are taking BTC seriously as a portfolio sleeve. Track volatility, ETF flows, and macro cues; together, they will likely set the range for the next leg of bitcoin price discovery. This post Bitcoin 2025 Outlook: Undervalued vs Gold? JPMorgan Weighs In first appeared on BitcoinWorld and is written by Editorial Team
