Summary Bitcoin is in a strong bullish cycle, supported by increased institutional participation and ETF approvals, likely extending through year-end. On-chain and macro indicators, including DXY trends and Bitcoin's outperformance of the Magnificent 7, signal continued price momentum. Key on-chain metrics show healthy market conditions, with no imminent correction expected and strong momentum for further price gains. I recommend buying or holding GBTC, as current conditions favor new all-time highs and it serves as an effective inflation hedge. Introduction The price of Bitcoin is currently above 100k, more specifically at 104k. It is about 7k above its all-time high, achieved at 111,951 on May 28, 2025. In today's article, we will analyze in detail the Bitcoin asset and its possible path in the short term. With the aim of making a buy/sell or maintenance recommendation on the investment vehicle Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ( GBTC ). The GBTC is an investment vehicle (ETP) owned by the investment firm Grayscale that offers direct exposure to the Bitcoin asset, without the investor having to buy, store or guard it. Being a passive trust, it is not subject to the same financial regulations as a Bitcoin ETF when used. The vehicle always keeps a fixed amount of Bitcoin and issues shares that reflect that holding of them. They do not buy and sell Bitcoin on the market, unless the fund's Authorized Participants (PAs) create or redeem what are known as creation units (creation units). For example, to create new shares (creation units) an Authorized Participant delivers to the trust a multiple of 25,000 shares in Bitcoins (in kind), i.e., approximately 25,000 × 0.00078771 ≈ 19.7 BTC per unit; in exchange, it receives new shares from the trust. To redeem these actions, the Authorized Participant performs the same process but in reverse. As the reader will understand, each new share issued increases the vehicle's reserves by approximately 0.00078771 Bitcoin. The relationship could be summarized in the following equation: Node Analytica Where are we? Currently, Bitcoin is in its third bullish cycle after those of the years 2015, 2018 and 2022. With increased institutional participation in daily Bitcoin purchases triggered by the approval of the different ETFs since January 10, 2024. With the entry of this smarter type of capital, this last cycle is lengthening and probably lasts until the end of this year, having a slighter correction, due to the maturation of this market. Trading View Analysis - Macro & On - Chain In this section, we will analyze Bitcoin from a macroeconomic and on-chain perspective, to facilitate that buy/sell or maintenance recommendation. First, we start by looking at the DXY. The reason for this is that, as seen in the following chart, the level of the DXY clearly marks the end of the Bitcoin cycle. As can be seen in the image, in both 2018 and 2022 the DXY levels were around $88, coinciding with the local highs of the respective cycles in Bitcoin. Regarding the current moment we appreciate that the DXY is at about $100 and decreasing, probably going to look for the levels of 85 -90 that coincide with the maximum in the price of Bitcoin in this cycle. Node Analytica Secondly, we present the Bitcoin vs. MAG 7 Ratio metric. This metric compares how many times Bitcoin's cumulative yield exceeds or doesn't exceed the performance of the Magnificent 7. It is clear from the chart that the ratio peaks coincide with the local peaks for each asset cycle. Currently, the metric comes in a clear uptrend where Bitcoin is currently outperforming the MAG 7 by 5 to 1. From my perspective, as long as this indicator is below 10, the current bullish cycle will remain active and the price of Bitcoin will increase from current levels until it reaches that yield multiple. Node Analytica After these two metrics, we will begin to analyze Bitcoin from the perspective of the activity of your chain. As the first metric in this section we present the Supply in Profit Trend metric. What we analyze in this metric is what the trend of the supply of both LTH and STH is currently in profits. As you can see in the chart, today more than 90% of Bitcoin's circulating supply (20,000,000) is in profits. This has historically been an early sign of future sales of the asset, so we could initially foresee an imminent price contraction. But there's one peculiarity at the moment, which is the third time in less than 6 months that the metric has reached those levels. For this reason, we rule out a short-term correction and predict a rise in the price searching for new highs, since corrections for this reason already existed at these price levels. Node Analytica In the graph below, we can see the AVIV Momentum Trend Indicator metric. The active value to investor value ((AVIV)), relates on a daily basis to the flow of currencies that change hands daily in the market, divided by the number of currencies that remain in the hands of investors. When the ratio is greater than 1, it means that the transacted flow exceeds the flow maintained by investors. As seen in the chart, when the ratio exceeds value 2, the asset enters a strong distribution phase. This metric does not distinguish between buy and sell within the transactional flow, so a ratio above 1 should not be taken as detrimental. At the moment, the AVIV ratio is at a value of 1.5, which I consider quite healthy to expose me to the asset today. Node Analytica The next metric analyzed is the STH - Market Value Realized Value Momentum. This metric relates the market value and realized value of STHs (Short Term Holders), which are investors with coins less than 155 days old. The activity of these investors is important since they are the most influential on the price of Bitcoin in the short term. Currently, the metric is at healthy levels, with good momentum (green bars at the base of the chart), which indicates a good time to buy. Node Analytica Finally, we show our star metric that reflects momentum signals in relation to multiple on-chain metrics. The blue bars on the chart mean good buying moments based on the momentum that the metric sets. On the other hand, the orange bars indicate otherwise; weak momentum. As you can see in the graph, we are currently at a good point according to the activity of the chain, which consequently gives us a positive signal of momentum, which I translate as a good entry point. Node Analytica Conclusion As a conclusion and to finish the article, I recommend buying the GBTC vehicle that exposes you directly to Bitcoin. I believe that the current moment is a good entry point and that sooner rather than later the asset will seek new historical highs ((ATH)), which will benefit the vehicle analyzed. If you already bought and have it in your portfolio, my advice is to keep it for these reasons and because it acts fantastically as a hedge against inflation and the loss of purchasing power of traditional currencies.
