Despite a deep correction today, Bitcoin still remains rangebound in the consolidation pocket between $80.5K and $95k for the 11th week running. From tariff escalations to geopolitical friction, these macro headwinds have weighed heavily toward a risk off sentiment and discouraged any early momentum we saw during the start of the year. This sentiment has seemingly spilled over into the institutional side. Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. have seen a pickup in sell side pressure since January 16th, with sustained outflows culminating in last week marking the second largest weekly net outflows to date. Despite the heavy outflows, ever since the deleveraging event on October 10th last year, Bitcoin has weathered this sell side pressure adamantly so far and continues to hold its broader consolidation range. The question that bears answering now turns to what is propping up the price for BTC at the moment. For traders and investors, this is an important question to ask because prolonged consolidation in the face of constant macro headwinds and ETF outflows suggest that underlying demand is coming from somewhere more structural than short term speculation. Identifying current demand also gives perspective on any future price moves as it allows you to assess the quality and durability of any swings. It’s clear that Bitcoin at the moment is looking for clear and decisive directionality. The lack of a breakout, however, does not imply a lack of demand. The sell side pressure from the ETFs are currently being absorbed by three pronged dynamic: demand from corporate treasuries, specifically Strategy, a cohort of whales continuing to accumulate and a quieter derivatives market. Corporate Treasuries Providing a Bid Bitcoin is currently around 13% down from the top of its consolidation zone it’s been in since November 16th. Within this timeframe, BTC Spot ETFs have seen a negative net flow of -$3.34 Billion. At current prices (~$83K), this equates to roughly 40.241 BTC of sell-side pressure, with the important caveat that ETF outflows occurred across multiple price levels, making this a BTC-equivalent approximation. U.S. BTC Spot ETFs net daily flows from November 16th to 29th January. Source: SoSoValue Source: The Block On the other hand, since November 16, data from the block shows that cumulative Bitcoin holdings of treasury companies rose from 809.02k BTC to 881.04k BTC, an increase of 72,020 BTC, representing a roughly 8.9% growth over the period. In net terms, treasury buying alone exceeds ETF-driven selling by around 1.8x, helping explain why BTC remains constricted in a zone rather than breaking down in the face of consistent macro and outflow driven news. Long Term Holder Net Position Change Source: Checkonchain Another key data point that explains why Bitcoin remains range bound for now is that selling pressure among long term holders has now dried up and in fact flipped positive since the start of the month. In on-chain analysis, Long Term Holders (LTH) are typically referred to as wallets holding Bitcoin for 155 days or longer. The chart seen above tracks the 30-day net change in LTH supply over BTC’s price. In simple words, it shows us whether patient, higher conviction holders are adding or removing exposure to their positions. After a long period of LTH selling that accelerated after November last year, this dynamic has started to shift. The 30-day net position change has now flipped into the positive territory, standing at +177.08K BTC, meaning these holders, over the past month, have added that much to their collective holdings. This not only marks a clear change from distribution to accumulation but also signals that coins sold into weakness are now being reabsorbed by holders with longer term outlook. What’s more is that, historically, positive shifts in LTH supply change have acted as a leading indicator of broader trend reversals. That said, it’s important to be wary of the fact this is not a bottom signal or call for an immediate breakout. LTH accumulation can persist but macro conditions still play a crucial role in shaping short term price action and subsequent reactions from this group. Derivatives Pressure Being Released Source: The Block Another important factor helping explain Bitcoin’s consolidation is the steady release of derivatives pressure. Over the last year, aggregate open interest in Bitcoin futures across the top 15 centralized exchanges peaked at approximately $64.52 billion on October 7, showing a heavily leveraged market with elevated speculative positioning. However, following the liquidation event that unfolded after October 10, open interest fell off a cliff and has continued to go lower. As of now, aggregate open interest stands at around $37.53 billion, representing a sizable reduction in leverage across the system. This decline in open interest suggests that excess leverage has been systematically flushed out, reducing both forced liquidations and reflexive momentum-driven moves. In such an environment, price action tends to compress: without aggressive long positioning to fuel upside or crowded shorts to trigger squeezes, Bitcoin is more likely to trade sideways as spot flows absorb residual supply. In that sense, the current rangebound behavior is not necessarily a sign of indecision alone, but rather a reflection of a market that is resetting positioning and rebuilding from a cleaner base, where directional moves are more likely to emerge once leverage and conviction begin to re-accumulate. What the Range is Actually Signalling Bitcoin is currently correcting sharply to the downside. The fact, however, is that we still remain in a long term market structure. The market is still in a period of testing acceptance, albeit under increasing downside momentum, rather than resolving direction. That said, there is the ETF realized price currently sitting at 86.6k, which is a key level that Bitcoin needs to reclaim. This zone has historically acted as a stabilization and accumulation area. A prolonged period below this zone will likely add sell side pressure as ETF holders are net underwater.
