Summary Cipher Mining is rated a Buy, driven by robust AI data center demand and major hyperscaler contracts. CIFR has secured long-term deals with Google and Amazon, locking in at least $8.5B in revenue and validating its platform. Significant data center expansion, including a 1 GW site, positions CIFR to capture AI-driven growth amid fierce competition. Valuation suggests 34% upside to $25.13 per share, though rising debt and execution risks warrant close monitoring. Introduction Cipher Mining ( CIFR ) is a legacy bitcoin miner turned GPU-as-a-service provider who competes with neoclouds to provide GPU services for their clients. They own and operate data centers in the US to service AI and high-performance computing needs, and they aim to leverage renewable energies for a sustainable overall operation. We believe they are a Buy due to macro trends and their sustainable energy background. In the below section, we will cover some of their recent news and macro trends that are relevant to the firm. Recent News and Trends The Firm is Actively Growing Their Data Center Pipeline Currently, CIFR operates a number of energized sites across Texas, and there are 5 more to come in addition to the 4 that are already live. See the below map from their website . CIFR Website Their new site, in Colchis (not shown on the map), is going to be a 1-gigawatt capacity data center with a projected go-live date in 2028. With up to 620 acres at this site, CIFR remains poised to continue being a powerful player in the data center operations space. See the image from their November 2025 investor presentation for more details. CIFR November 2025 Investor Presentation They are consistently developing and expanding their portfolio, as you can see from their pipeline details page. CIFR November 2025 Investor Presentation Seeing all of this development and inking of new deals is certainly bullish as an investor. The firm is capturing share from larger players in the ever-growing data center space, and they are still able to fund some of their operations from their legacy bitcoin mining business. We view this diversified approach to growing their footprint in AI/HPC computing data centers as a solid plan that management should continue executing on - and barring any hiccups in the execution, we are bullish on this vision. Signed Deals With Hyperscalers Prove Their Business is Valuable to Established Players CIFR has signed major development deals with both Google and Amazon. In the below image, see details regarding the Google deal. CIFR November 2025 Investor Presentation A 10-year lease with Google for 300 MW upfront, with an additional 500 MW possible, is an excellent step in ensuring locked-in revenue for the firm over the next decade. Per the firm, they are slated to see $3.0B at a minimum of revenue, which at current share prices, represents nearly half of their entire market cap. With Amazon, they signed a large 15-year agreement, specifically with AWS, to support AI workloads. The total estimated contract value is $5.5B, and this partnership is slated to start in August 2026. With 300 MW of capacity provisioned, CIFR proves again that large AI companies are buyers of their platform - highly bullish news. See below for details on the Amazon deal. CIFR November 2025 Investor Presentation We believe that with these two deals, CIFR is far beyond “proof of concept” and has clearly established a lane for themselves to operate in, despite the massive amounts of competition in this area. With the ability to provide these data centers and power them with sustainable energy, CIFR is well-positioned to continue growing as long as they keep executing. Strong Macro Tailwinds Should Boost the Stock Further AI use cases are continuing to grow rapidly, and per McKinsey studies, the investment needed for data centers by 2030 will reach a whopping $6.7T worldwide to keep up with the demand for computing power - and of that, $5.2T is forecasted purely for AI demands. This staggering number means that for any firm looking to work with AI, they will need access to data centers, and this puts CIFR’s value proposition squarely in the forefront of this ever-growing pie. See the below graph. McKinsey With this exponential growth in compute required, there will be a number of winners in the data center-related industry. For CIFR, this only helps their case even further as they not only have contracted demand guaranteed already, but they have a steady pipeline of future value that can be unlocked with steady execution. CIFR remains a capable player to take share in this space. Valuation To come to an estimated valuation for CIFR, we will do a peer multiples analysis. We will use the Price/Book (P/B) ratio for this, as CIFR and its peers have very capital-intensive business models, and there is a correlation between more book value (aka more servers for mining or rent) and more revenue/earnings. For this analysis we will consider the following peers: IREN Limited ( IREN ), TeraWulf Inc. ( WULF ), Core Scientific, Inc. ( CORZ ), and Hut 8 Corp. ( HUT ). Let’s look at what the P/B values look like for the cohort: Company P/B CIFR 8.29 IREN 5.15 WULF 24.02 CORZ N/A HUT 4.16 CORZ has no reportable P/B since they have a negative book value. We will exclude them from any further P/B analysis. We see that CIFR is generally in the middle of the range here with a higher P/B than 2 names and a lower P/B than 1. The average P/B of all the peers (excluding CIFR) is 11.11, which is 1.34x larger than CIFR’s P/B. Applying this same multiple to their current stock price of $18.75, we arrive at a valuation of $25.13, which represents a 34% upside. Risks High and Growing Debt The company has a high debt, which is currently at $1.04 billion based on the latest report for Q3 2025. This is a significant increase from the previous quarter’s report, where the company showed $189.3 million in debt. Between those last 2 quarters alone, the Debt/Equity ratio increased from 25.28% to 133.30%. Interest expenses between these 2 quarters have not moved by much, and the increase will likely be reflected in the Q4 2025 report. We will be keeping a close eye on this value and how it may impact the company’s ability to meet its obligations while continuing to operate. Competition is Intense As discussed above, there are lots of competitors in this space, and CIFR will have to execute to win contracts and clients. However, we believe that the pie is growing and more than one key player will exist in this massive data center market. Conclusion CIFR is a strong player in the AI data center industry with contracted deals currently and more development in the pipeline. They are powering some of the world’s most influential AI companies with their data centers and are poised to continue taking share as the overall market grows in the next few years. Despite some potential risks, we see CIFR as a buy with an estimated per-share valuation of $25.13.
