Summary Bakkt Holdings has pivoted to B2B crypto infrastructure, but profitability and revenue clarity remain elusive. BKKT's main revenue comes from transaction-based services, with Bakkt Agent positioned as a future growth driver. Despite recent capital raises and divestitures, BKKT's cash position is tight, and further dilution risk persists. Q4 results and 2026 KPIs are critical before considering a buy; holding is suggested for existing positions. Bakkt Holdings ( BKKT ) has nearly completed its transition into software solutions for crypto trading and money movement. Despite the progress, mysteries remain about the plan for 2026, making it too tough to buy right now. Q4 results and forward guidance are needed first. Business Model Bakkt's revenue primarily comes from crypto transaction services. They are not an exchange in their own right. Rather, they provide a software service that their B2B customers can embed into their own product to facilitate crypto services. Q3 2025 Company Presentation Technically, as the slide above indicates, there are multiple products that draw various forms of revenue, grouped into three verticals: Bakkt Markets: Core business Bakkt Agent: Money movement Bakkt Global: Expands their model globally through minority investment Breakdown Of Revenue (Q3 2025 Form 10Q) Recent revenue breakdowns ( from Q3 2025 ), show that most of this is transaction-based, with subscription services being much smaller. In essence, clients are institutions that make revenue from trading services to traders/investors, and Bakkt receives a portion of this from the client as their pay for providing the crypto infrastructure as an embedded solution. Notable clients include: Plaid Fiserv ( FISV ) Public.com Thus, while there are other sources in place, their main moneymaker is solutions that enable trading through clients by their customers. Financial History If one were to take a quick look at the financial data without context, it would look like Bakkt has been on a run of explosive growth. Author's display of 10K data Revenue was only $56.2M as of 2022. It quickly rose to $780M in 2023 and $3,490M in 2024. This did not reflect a scaling business. Rather, it reflected a strategic pivot, with Bakkt first entering the trading-related business it currently operates. The deeper, intentional part of this pivot was ultimately announced alongside full-year 2024 results, with the hiring of the current CEO, Akshay Naheta. Consequently, various segments and subsidiaries have been discontinued and divested. In the Q3 2025 earnings call last November, Naheta summarized the progress as such: We exited noncore operations, reconstituted the Board, streamlined our organization and refocused entirely around one mission, building a leading regulated digital asset infrastructure platform. We rebuilt Bakkt from the ground up, simplifying our technology stack, reducing external dependencies and attracting top-tier talent to lead our 3 core verticals. Nevertheless, Bakkt has not yet become profitable with the new business model. Income Statement (Q3 2025 Form 10Q) If we focus on Q3's results (the least reflective of discontinued operations), we see that there's gross profit in the trading-related revenues, but it's not yet scaled enough to cover the different components of their overhead. A net loss of $21.5M was therefore recorded for the continuing ops. Balance Sheet (Q3 2025 Form 10Q) At the end of Q3, the company had $58.3M in unrestricted cash. Assets held for sale were divested at the start of Q4, but this resulted in a net outflow of cash, given the terms of the deal from July: $11M upfront payment Plus estimated negative working capital Plus amount of indebtedness Q3 2025 Company Presentation While it seems like a tight cash position, this does follow a series of capital raises earlier in the year that eliminated debt and simplified the capital structure of the business. Bakkt isn't exactly in a healthy spot, but it's made some key improvements in 2025. Outlook and Valuation BKKT recently traded under $16 per share, giving it a market cap around $465M. With Q3's revenue annualizing to about $2B but no GAAP earnings at the current scale, an investment right now has to foresee growth that leads to profitability. During the earnings call, Naheta had more to say about how Bakkt Agent should be a bigger driver of growth than Bakkt Global, so let's look at the different ways it moves money. Q3 2025 Company Presentation The opportunity, as expressed in the call, is: Bakkt Agent is our response, a programmable finance platform operating behind the scenes as the AI-driven architecture powering the next wave of digital banking. Under the hood, Bakkt Agent is an AI-first modular stack, built from the ground up. Multiple AI agents coordinate workflows across payments, compliance and treasury, integrating with partner banks, card networks and payment providers worldwide. The result is a white label customizable foundation that allows any partner to launch a neobank grade experience quickly and compliantly. As it was launched just earlier this year, there aren't yet meaningful financial results from this. It plans to grow this segment through distribution partnerships ahead. Bakkt Global seems like less of a growth opportunity. Management has framed this more as making capital contributions to foreign companies that may try a digital asset treasury model, effectively giving BKKT some exposure to Bitcoin ( BTC-USD ) and perhaps other coins. Bakkt Markets and Bakkt Agent seem like "more real" operating segments. Q3 2025 Company Presentation I am hesitant about this stock. I have concerns about the tight cash situation. I have concerns about how quickly and painlessly they will start picking up distributor partnerships. Third, there are some ways to measure success that are not yet quite clear, and KPIs are to be released in 2026. Bakkt is small. If it becomes a halfway-decent business, its $465M market cap could become a few billion. Potential upside isn't the question here. Rather, it's that their revenue models are nebulous up to this point. While the CEO spoke firmly about being anti-dilution in the earnings call, they may have to rely on that in order to cover cash shortages with the kind of losses they take. Q4 results will be important to see if these other segments are providing any kind of revenue, as well as to see how their KPIs can give insight into growth. There needs to be a clear idea of how much business they can win, how quickly, and how it impacts operating expenses to grow. Conclusion Bakkt may not be in dire straits, but its future is cloudy right now. Potential remains for further losses that could provoke more rounds of financing. Upside can be whittled down on the individual share over time from this. For now, it seems better to wait and see as they release Q4 results and set sharper expectations for 2026. It's not the right time to buy, but folks who already have a position might as well hold until we get there.
