Summary Schwab Crypto Thematic ETF is rated a buy, offering exposure to crypto-linked stocks with reasonable valuation and seasonal tailwinds. STCE exhibits high volatility, with a 64% annualized standard deviation and significant tracking error, making it a high-risk, high-reward play. The ETF is concentrated in fintech, heavily weighted toward Financials and Information Technology, and relies on bullish trends in bitcoin and ether. Technical analysis shows STCE near key Fibonacci support, with the 200-day moving average trending up, suggesting a favorable risk-managed entry point. Cryptocurrencies, namely bitcoin and ether, got off to a rough start in 2025. Digital assets cratered leading into and immediately after the so-called “Liberation Day.” But the crypto bulls came back, and for a brief time, the two most valuable non-stablecoin tokens tagged record highs in the second half of the year. Volatility has been high, but swings are incredibly wild in shares of many crypto-linked stocks. Today, I’m digging into the Schwab Crypto Thematic ETF (STCE). With about three years under its belt, price action has not been for the faint of heart. I have a buy rating on it. The valuation is not extreme, while the chart points to the possibility of near-term support. To add to that, year-end has tended to be a very strong stretch in crypto. STCE: Much Higher Volatility Than Even Bitcoin & Ether This Year StockCharts.com According to the issuer , "STCE is designed to deliver global exposure to companies that may benefit from the development or utilization of cryptocurrencies (including bitcoin) and other digital assets, and the business activities connected to blockchain and other distributed ledger technology. Investors in the fund have the potential to benefit from the increased adoption of cryptocurrencies, both as a store of value and medium of exchange, without owning cryptocurrencies like bitcoin directly and other digital assets." STCE is a small ETF with just $347 million in assets under management as of November 10, 2025. Its annual expense ratio is modest at just 30 basis points, while the trailing 12-month dividend yield is very low at just 0.34%, about one percentage point below that of the S&P 500. Share-price momentum is rated well, but the fund is about 25% off its highs. The portfolio is, of course, highly risky across volatility metrics. Its standard deviation is at nosebleed levels, above 60%. What’s more, annualized volatility is now 64%, with tracking error running high compared to benchmarks. Overall, the ETF Risk Grade by Seeking Alpha’s quantitative scoring system is poor at an F. Still, its overall Asset Class rank, as of this writing, is top-notch at No. 2 out of 410. Finally, on liquidity , I would caution investors to use limit orders, particularly around the market’s open. Average daily volume is just 124,000 shares, while the median 30-day bid/ask spread is wide at 24 basis points, per Schwab. Looking closer at the portfolio, the 3-star ETF by Morningstar has high exposure to the lowest row of the style box, indicating its material exposure to small caps. Furthermore, more than half of the allocation is classified as growth. What does that mean for investors? Well, it suggests that price trends rely heavily on a thematic story—bullish bitcoin and ether, in this case. I’d steer investors away from the low reported 9.8x P/E (I trust Schwab’s numbers more, which is 22.4x). STCE: Portfolio & Factor Profiles Morningstar STCE: Low-Mid 20s P/E Schwab In terms of the sector breakdown, STCE is really a fintech play. Hence, almost the entire portfolio is invested in either the Financials or the Information Technology sector. Concentration is high, however, with almost two-thirds of the product allocated to just the top 10 holdings. So, it’s key to follow both the fundamentals and technicals of those major positions, particularly during the earnings season. STCE: Holdings & Dividend Information Seeking Alpha In terms of seasonality, STCE has a limited price history. For that reason, I pulled bitcoin’s long-term month-by-month average price change. You’ll see that November is historically bullish, with gains extending into year-end and the beginning of the new year. To be clear, bitcoin bucked usual October bullish trends, so it’s not a sure thing. Bitcoin: Bullish Turn-of-the-Year Trends Barchart The Technical Take With a reasonable valuation and seasonal tailwinds, STCE’s technical situation is weak at first glance, but I see support in play. Notice in the chart below that shares are now approaching the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the April to October rally. That level is close to the $78 level—just $4 above the current price. Moreover, a peak in September has confluence with that point. What’s negative, though, is that the fund has dropped below the short-term 50-day moving average. But take a look at the long-term 200dma. It remains upward sloping, suggesting that even after a 25% giveback, the bulls still control the primary trend. Long-term support is likely to appear near $60—the peak from late 2024 and where resistance appeared in July. That's also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement mark. So, buying here and adding in the low-mid $60s could be a risk-managed way to build a position. Additionally, the RSI momentum oscillator at the top of the chart has ranged in a bullish zone from 40 to 80 (and here we are at the base of the range today). Finally, there is overhead resistance, given the significant amount of volume by price up to $110 (heavy volume since September leaves many investors underwater). STCE: Shares Retreat 25% to Fibonacci Support, Rising 200dma, Bullish RSI Range StockCharts.com The Bottom Line I have a buy rating on STCE. The significant decline was perhaps needed after the fund notched extremely overbought levels. The P/E is not massive, while bullish calendar trends and a notable place on the chart offer opportunity, in my view.
