Long-Dormant Bitcoin Wallets Tighten Supply, Fueling Bullish Outlook

Interestingly, Bitcoin coins untouched for ten years now exceed daily issuance, reviving 2021-style supply-shock narratives as analysts float $200K cycle targets. Bitcoin’s 10-Year Hodling Narrative Goes Through the Roof Following the 2024 halving, a pivotal shift emerged in Bitcoin’s ecosystem. For the first time ever, more BTC is becoming “ancient supply”—unmoved for over 10 years—than is being newly mined. On average, 566 BTC per day goes dormant, outpacing the 450 BTC issued daily, according to Glassnode data. Fidelity acknowledged , “The strong conviction of these ultra long-term holders is having an increasing influence on the wider Bitcoin ecosystem.” On January 1, 2019, Satoshi Nakamoto became the first Bitcoin 10-year holder, and ever since, nearly 3.4 million BTC worth more than $360 billion has joined the “ancient supply” category. Fidelity noted that roughly one-third of the ancient Bitcoin supply belongs to Satoshi, while a significant portion is likely lost or inaccessible though some of these coins could still resurface. The rise in long-term holders may partly explain Bitcoin’s sideways and downward price action in Q1 2025. Despite ancient supply outpacing new issuance, this imbalance doesn’t guarantee price gains, but it could regnite hope that the leading cryptocurrency could soar to the $205K target in the long run, owing to a remarkable hodling trend and an imminent Bitcoin supply squeeze. The supply shock narrative is supported by the fact that BTC on exchanges recently hit a 7-year low , reflecting a shift in market structure and investor behavior. Institutional Grade Bitcoin Treasury Gains Steam Not only is ancient BTC taking over, but also corporate Bitcoin adoption as a treasury asset has been going through the roof in the first half of 2025, marking a pivotal shift toward institutional-grade crypto strategies. Several factors are making institutional-grade Bitcoin treasuries more viable and appealing than ever. A growing Wave of Corporate Treasuries As of early June 2025, roughly 80 publicly listed companies collectively hold over 673,000–688,000 BTC—valued at nearly $70 billion—amounting to around 3–3.4% of all circulating Bitcoin. Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, leads with 582,000 BTC , acquired for a total of $40.79 billion at an average price of about $70,086 per Bitcoin. Other adopters include Tesla, Block, GameStop, Trump Media, Metaplanet, Semler Scientific, and Twenty One Capital. Nakamoto Holdings is the latest firm to expand its BTC treasury through a PIPE (Private Investment in Public Equity) worth a whopping $51.5 million. Why is this Trend Gaining Steam Inflation hedge & dollar uncertainty Corporate leaders cite concerns over a weakening U.S. dollar, rising global debt, and unpredictable monetary policy. Bitcoin offers both a fixed-supply hedge and non-sovereign diversification. Regulatory tailwinds Under the current U.S. administration, firms like Trump Media are leveraging a more crypto‑friendly regulatory environment, with streamlined access to debt markets via convertible bonds designed to fund BTC buys . Tactical capital raising Public companies are issuing bonds, convertible notes, and equity to finance BTC accumulation—mirroring Strategy’s leveraged approach. For example, KindyMD is merging with Nakamoto Holdings with $763 million in escrow for Bitcoin reserves. Market psychology & optics Bitcoin treasury announcements often spark sharp runs in corporate stock prices—even for non-crypto firms. GameStop saw its price jump following its BTC purchase. Conclusion As more companies follow Strategy’s model—supported by IPOs, mergers, and debt financings—the Bitcoin treasury play is gaining legitimacy and momentum. This coupled with ancient Bitcoin skyrocketing, have the potential of pushing the apex cryptocurrency to unprecedented heights.