HTX DeepThink: Current BTC Move Looks Less Like a Rebound—and More Like the Start of a New Macro Repricing Phase

Bitcoin has continued to find strong bids at elevated levels even without a clear improvement in headline macro data. In this edition of the HTX DeepThink column, HTX Research analyst Chloe (@ ChloeTalk1 ) argues that the current move in BTC looks less like a technical rebound and more like the opening of a new macro repricing phase. Two macro pricing engines are increasingly driving that shift: a quiet change in U.S. system liquidity—starting from housing finance—and a renewed repricing of geopolitical risk in the Middle East. Housing Finance as the Starting Point: A Quiet Shift in U.S. System Liquidity U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comments on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac purchasing mortgage-backed securities (MBS) may sound like housing policy. But through a market-structure lens, they point to a meaningful liquidity development with direct relevance for crypto. While the Federal Reserve is still allowing roughly $15–17 billion of MBS to roll off its balance sheet each month via quantitative tightening (QT), the Trump administration is using government-sponsored enterprises to buy back that same flow with their own balance sheets. In effect, liquidity that the Fed is “withdrawing” is being re-absorbed within the housing finance system—amounting to a form of “shadow QE” without formally changing the Fed’s policy framework. For crypto markets, the key is not whether mortgage rates fall immediately. The key is whether real liquidity is re-entering the U.S. financial system. When Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac buy MBS, the spread between MBS and Treasuries can compress, bank balance-sheet capacity can improve, and credit creation becomes easier. In the U.S., housing credit is one of the most powerful channels through which liquidity transmits into the broader financial system—and it was a core driver of the 2020–2021 Bitcoin bull market. This also helps explain why BTC has been able to attract persistent buying support even before macro data has visibly improved: despite the Fed appearing cautious on the surface, dollar credit may already be re-expanding at the system level. Historically, risk assets tend to react early to such shifts—and Bitcoin remains among the most liquidity-sensitive assets. Iran Risk Reprices Inflation and Dollar Uncertainty A second pricing engine is emerging from the Middle East. Iran is facing its largest wave of protests since 1979, raising fresh questions about regime stability, while the United States and Israel are reportedly preparing for potential political and military involvement. Oil prices jumped more than 5% in two days—not because of inventories or demand swings, but because markets began pricing in the risk of supply disruption and escalation. This type of geopolitical shock tends to lift inflation tail risks and deepen uncertainty around the dollar-based system. For crypto assets, that kind of structural uncertainty is typically supportive. Higher energy prices raise production costs and inflation risks, while the U.S. is simultaneously leaning on a housing-finance backstop that effectively supports credit expansion. In combination, the result is downward pressure on real rates, ongoing erosion of fiat purchasing power, and renewed pricing power for scarce assets. That framing also helps explain why gold, silver, and Bitcoin have been strengthening together. The move is less about “risk-on” and more about a shared macro theme: when fiscal forces increasingly shape monetary outcomes and geopolitics destabilizes energy and inflation expectations, non-dilutable assets tend to regain attention as stores of value. A Familiar Structural Setup Is Taking Shape Taken together, crypto is moving into a recognizable structural environment: liquidity is loosening quietly, geopolitical risk is rising, and the long-term valuation anchor for BTC—and higher-quality crypto assets—appears to be shifting upward. Short-term price action may still be swayed by data and sentiment, but from the combined lens of liquidity and geopolitics, the macro backdrop has become notably more favorable. This is why the current BTC move does not look like a simple rebound—it increasingly resembles the beginning of a new macro repricing phase. *The above content is not an investment advice and does not constitute any offer or solicitation to offer or recommendation of any investment product. To learn more about HTX, please visit https://www.htx.com/ or HTX Square , and follow HTX on X , Telegram , and Discord . The post HTX DeepThink: Current BTC Move Looks Less Like a Rebound—and More Like the Start of a New Macro Repricing Phase first appeared on HTX Square .