Summary Bitcoin Depot Inc. (BTM) is poised for growth, expanding its bitcoin treasury and leading the US crypto ATM market with a 28% share. BTM's acquisition of Pelicoin and growing kiosk network position it to capitalize on surging US crypto adoption and regulatory clarity. Financials show BTM returning to profitability as transaction volumes rise, with revenue projected to reach $675 million by 2026. BTM is undervalued with significant upside; I reiterate a strong bullish rating, targeting aproximately 187% gain by 2026 despite bitcoin volatility risks. Introduction & Investment Thesis I am bullish on Bitcoin Depot Inc. (NASDAQ: BTM ), driven by the expansion of its bitcoin treasury holdings to 100.35 Bitcoins, with a purchase expenditure of $0.6 million, for the additional 6 Bitcoins. Following the purchase of 83 Bitcoins earlier this year, spending around $7.8 million, the company is seeing potential in improved adoption of cryptocurrencies, especially in the US, with a significant market share of 28% and other regions. BTM The question here is, how does expanding the bitcoin treasury currently matter to the company? First off, I believe the future of Bitcoin is lucrative given the US government's interests, such as establishing its strategic reserve . Apart from holding Bitcoin as a store of value like Gold, the US government is opening a door to the use of Bitcoin as a legal tender , which is a major driver of the US crypto ATM market. Today, the market value of US crypto ATM is $113.2 million and is expected to hit $2.43 billion by 2032 at a CAGR of 55% between 2025 and 2032. Since BTM is focused on North America, with the US as a leader, I will explain below why its expansion of Bitcoin treasury positions the company for more gains in the rapidly growing market at 55%. Company Brief Bitcoin Depot Inc. operates a network of Bitcoin ATMs across North America. The company allows customers to buy and sell bitcoin at various retail locations, convenience stores, pharmacies, gas stations, grocers and shopping malls. Moreover, the company offers cryptocurrency sales through its BDCheckout service at these retail locations and through its website. The company was incorporated in 2016 and is based in Atlanta, Georgia. A Deeper Dive: Macro Lens Before going to the BTM expansion of bitcoin treasury holding, let me first give a broader perspective on where this comes from. To begin with, I noted previously that the US government regulatory framework. The government is continuing to shed more light on Cryptocurrency by providing a sense of security with actions such as the GENIUS Act . This statute requires the establishment of a clear regulatory framework for digital assets to enable a stable issuance of digital coins. The country is proceeding with more legal frameworks, such as the CLARITY Act, to keep the United States in pace with the rest of the world by establishing a market structure for digital assets. This gives a glimpse of the reason why the US Crypto ATM is growing rapidly at a CAGR of 55% between 2025 and 2032 and is estimated to reach $2.43 billion in 2032 from $73.5 million in 2025. P&S Intelligence Bitcoin Depot Deep Dive Now, taking this perspective, I will delve into Bitcoin Depot to explore the business opportunity in expanding its Bitcoin treasury. From my previous demonstration of how US cryptocurrency kiosks are growing, which is at a CAGR of 55%, BTM is also expanding its market share across North America by installing more ATM kiosks. The company is currently leading the bitcoin kiosk market with over 8,800 kiosks as of June 2025 and has since hit 9,000 kiosks as of September 2025 across North America and Australia. When I look at the acquisition of Pelicoin , BTM plans to add more kiosk locations in the Gulf South, including Alabama, Texas, Tennessee, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas. All the Pelicoin’s ATM network will be branded with BTM, which is a testament that the clientele base for the BTM is broadening, hence the need for more Bitcoin holdings in its treasury. Additionally, the company has recently been recognized as one of the greatest companies in 2025 due to its capacity to provide convenient and secure bitcoin access in the US. This means the company is gaining more customer trust and is building a larger client base. As such, the need for more bitcoins to meet the needs of bolstering clientele becomes clearer. Let me put this in another perspective: currently, the US has over 58 million active users of cryptocurrencies, and 85% of all global installations are done in the US. Since Bitcoin dominates this market at 46% of all cryptocurrencies, it means that with BTM leading in the number of installations, it has an advantage of accessing a bigger client base of 58 million active users. I believe that since BTM is leading in the number of ATMs in the US at 28% compared to its competitors like Coinflip and Athena, it has a high chance of accumulating more clientele. BTM This line of thought unravels why the company is continuously acquiring more bitcoins to consolidate a solid access to bitcoins for its bulging client base. Also, given the growth projection I highlighted above, it brings out the idea behind Pelicoin’s acquisition in BTM’s commitment to solidify its lead in the US market share. This can also be seen in the lens of revenue driver, which I will explain later as I do a revenue projection. Financials & Valuation Before projecting the future performance, let’s look at its financials. The company’s last five years’ revenue has been on the upside, except for FY2024, which recorded a negative revenue growth of -16.73% at $573.7 million. This was due to high volatility at the beginning of the year. Following the Trump Administration, which has continued to cement cryptocurrency safety, Bitcoin has surged to the current price of $115,986.60 and in 2 years , that is, 2027, it may reach between a range of $278,390 to $342,264. This means that with the expansion of BTM bitcoin treasury holdings to match its increasing ATM kiosks, it’s preparing to tap into this increase. This is evidenced by increasing transaction volume, and I look at it this way. In Q2’2024 , the transaction volume was $2.4 billion and has since gone up to $3.2 billion, representing 33.33% YoY. Additionally, this increase has reduced to -16.73% to the current trailing revenue growth of -3.35%. This indicates that the company is regaining an upside trajectory at the trailing revenue of $608.43, which is likely to be surpassed given the analysts’ estimate for the FY2025 of $626.12 million. Stock Analysis On profitability, BTM has entered profitability with a trailing net income of $2.68 million. This was after facing a precarious moment towards the end of FY2023 and early FY2024 from bitcoin price fluctuation, resulting in net losses in the same years. Stock Analysis The company is returning to profitability as bitcoin adoption increases, as explained earlier. This confirms the reason the company is preparing for a larger market reach, which is why it’s expanding its bitcoin treasury holding. For valuation, I will use the P/S ratio to value this stock, but I will begin by estimating the future financial performance of this stock. In my projections, I will adopt a growth rate of 7% for 2025 FY and 10% for 2026 FY, informed by the projected surge in Bitcoin prices. These rates are informed by the 6%-18% revenue growth rates before the 2024 dip. With the current Bitcoin price surge and the expected continuity of the momentum, I expect revenue to trend towards the previous rates. As for profitability, I expect the company to maintain profitability as revenue grows, and as such, I expect a net margin in the region of 2.5% by 2026. Given these assumptions, I am estimating a revenue of $675.24 million by 2026, which is in line with the consensus estimates of $672.95 million. Looking at the P/S ratio relative to its peers Civeo Corporation ( CVEO ) and Vestis Corporation ( VSTS ), BTM has the lowest ratio at 0.13x which implies that the stock is undervalued. Seeking Alpha When I take it further and look at their trailing revenue growth rates, BTM with a rate of -3.35% YoY compared to CVEO’s -10.6% and VSTS’s -4.59% shows that its undervaluation isn’t justified, and thus it’s a value opportunity. With BTM having the highest growth rate and given the bright Bitcoin outlook, I expect the market to reward the stock with a higher P/S ratio. As such, I will assume a forward P/S of 1.7x which is the sector median . While this seems conservative, I think it caters for the volatility risk. Given these assumptions and the projected revenue by 2026, I estimate a target price of about $10.5 by 2026 which marks an upside potential of ~187%. FPP(Author) Investment Risks Bitcoin volatility – BTM has focused on bitcoin ATMs, which means that the volatility of bitcoin has a direct effect on this company’s revenues. If the bitcoin price goes down, BTM risks not meeting its revenue projections. Changing market conditions – Global political and economic stability may influence the crypto market significantly, which risks not meeting its revenue projections. Conclusion BTM’s expansion of its bitcoin treasury is a testament to a promising upside trend, which is demonstrated in the acquisition of Pelicoin, LLC. Macro tailwinds, the US government regulatory framework that brings clarity, are resulting in bitcoin gains, which indicate the company is consolidating its bitcoin treasury to serve the surging bitcoin users. This is why I am reiterating my strong bullish stance on BTM, showing 187% upside potential by 2026.
