Bitcoin is showing an unusually strong resemblance to its 2022 bear-market behavior, with analysts noting that the price pattern in 2025 is aligning almost perfectly with previous cycle lows. With the year nearing its end, the cryptocurrency remains down around 36% from its all-time high despite earlier expectations that bullish momentum would accelerate into December. Network economist Timothy Peterson has been among the most vocal in highlighting how closely the current trajectory matches that of 2022. “2H2025 Bitcoin is the same as 2H2022 Bitcoin,” he wrote in a recent post on X. Correlation Metrics Reach Unprecedented Levels Peterson’s analysis shows that the daily correlation between 2025 and 2022 market action sits at roughly 80%. The monthly correlation has climbed even higher, hitting an extraordinary 98%. Charts accompanying his research indicate that if the trend remains intact, Bitcoin may not see a significant rebound until sometime in the first quarter of 2026. These findings have unsettled investors who hoped the market would rebound heading into the holiday period. Peterson recently summarized November’s performance with blunt clarity. “It feels bad because it is bad,” he wrote, adding that “this month ranks in the bottom 10% of daily price paths since 2015.” Historical Patterns Suggest December May Bring More Losses Bitcoin’s negative performance in November has historical implications. Data shows that when the cryptocurrency posts a “red” November, December often follows with further declines, though usually with reduced severity. With only weeks remaining in the year, traders are now weighing whether macro-driven optimism could deliver an end-of-year “Santa rally” or whether the market will continue mimicking 2022’s prolonged slump. Shift in Macro Environment Boosts Equities While crypto endured a challenging month, broader financial markets have shown signs of recovery. Figures reported by The Kobeissi Letter indicate that US equity funds have witnessed $900 billion in inflows since November 2024, with $450 billion arriving within the last five months alone. The publication noted: “Put differently, equities have attracted more inflows than all other asset classes COMBINED. Equity inflows remain remarkably strong.” This surge contrasts with the relatively muted performance of other asset classes, creating a divergence between stock-market sentiment and crypto-market behavior. ETF Inflows Signal Potential Crypto Stabilization Despite the recent sell-off, new data suggests that institutional crypto participation may be recovering. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $220 billion in inflows during Thanksgiving week, a noteworthy improvement after weeks of consistent redemptions. Spot Ether ETFs saw a similar turnaround, adding $312 million over the same period. These inflows may indicate that institutional investors are positioning ahead of a possible early-2026 recovery.
