Summary HODL offers direct bitcoin exposure with a sponsorship fee waiver through January 2026, making it a cost-effective choice for investors seeking spot bitcoin exposure. The ETF provides strong liquidity and security, storing bitcoin in cold storage with a qualified custodian, and has $1.9B in AUM. With minimal differentiation among bitcoin ETFs, low fees and high liquidity are key advantages, positioning HODL favorably versus competitors. I recommend HODL with a buy rating due to its current fee waiver, robust structure, and positive long-term outlook for bitcoin. The VanEck Bitcoin ETF ( HODL ) is a strategy designed to provide investors with exposure to the performance of the price of bitcoin. The strategy directly holds bitcoin, providing investors with exposure to the cryptocurrency spot price through an exchange-traded fund wrapper. About the Fund HODL was launched on January 4, 2024, as a bitcoin spot ETF. The strategy directly holds bitcoin in order to provide investors with direct exposure to the cryptocurrency, allowing the strategy to track the spot price. HODL is indexed to the MarketVector Bitcoin Benchmark Rate [BBR]. HODL has $1.9b in assets under management [AUM] with an average of 850k shares changing hands on a daily basis, providing investors and traders with substantial liquidity with minimal spread risk, or cost-in/cost-out at 0.04%. HODL has 17mm bitcoin within the trust, equating to 283 bitcoin per 1,000 shares. The ETF sponsor has waived all fees from November 2024 through January 10, 2026, for assets upwards of $2.5b in the trust. Beyond the target assets or following the term date, HODL will charge a 20bps sponsor fee on assets under management. HODL takes a unique approach to holding bitcoin, storing the assets in cold storage with a qualified custodian. Cold storage is the act of storing bitcoin on physical hardware that is not connected to the Internet in order to ensure the security of the bitcoin. Other bitcoin ETFs that undergo this methodology of storage include CoinShare Bitcoin ETF ( BRRR ) and ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF ( ARKB ). By comparison, HODL may be appealing for investors seeking bitcoin exposure as the sponsor fees are currently being waived. Net of fees, each of these strategies is expected to perform in tandem as the only assets being invested in are bitcoin. With no differentiation across strategies, the best next thing would be to target the lowest fee strategy. Seeking Alpha Seeking Alpha Aside from fees, a major differentiator may be assets under management and fund flows . Many of the bitcoin ETFs have remained relatively stagnant since launching at the beginning of 2024 in terms of net asset growth, while BlackRock ( IBIT ) has consistently grown above all others. Given that bitcoin ETFs may be used for liquidity in the market, ETF liquidity may be just as important as investing in a low-fee strategy. Bitcoin ETF Fund Flows From a tactical perspective, HODL is directionally correlated with the S&P 500 ( SPX ) to a certain degree. Some estimate that bitcoin has an 83% correlation to the SPX. Given the institutionalization of bitcoin, I believe that the cryptocurrency should be expected to move similarly to the broader equity index, particularly when considering the broad adoption of bitcoin ETFs across retirement portfolios. Given that bitcoin can be utilized as a liquid asset for trading & cash raises, I suspect that the security and related ETFs may continue to directionally move with the broader equity index. TradingView Interestingly enough, bitcoin faced some selling pressure following recent news of Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack not supporting an interest rate cut. Though I believe it may be far-reaching correlating the two events, the relationship between US rate policy and the price of bitcoin may suggest that bitcoin isn’t as decentralized as one may suspect given the relative pricing in relation to the US Dollar. The bitcoin strategy also exhibits some correlation to the 10-year treasury rate, suggesting that the price of bitcoin may be more tied to US rates than one may have expected. TradingView In terms of the growth trajectory for bitcoin, Bernstein analysts expect bitcoin’s rally to continue into 2026 and potentially into 2027, expecting bitcoin to run up to $200,000/BTC. Part of the optimism is in relation to the Trump administration’s general support for the market with the passage of the GENIUS Act as well as the establishment of the Federal Bitcoin Reserve. Risks Related to Bitcoin ETFs Bitcoin ETFs are single-asset investment strategies that hold no diversification or differentiation net of fees and liquidity. Given the popularity of the investment, bitcoin ETFs may pose an investment concentration risk in which the asset is so widely and heavily invested in that it could potentially pose certain risks if a sell-off were to occur. The establishment of a Federal Bitcoin Reserve could potentially lead to substantially more government control over the cryptocurrency and may lead to monetary policy directed at bitcoin. Though this would be a far-reaching presumption, I believe that there could be the possibility of this occurring when considering the potential for bitcoin to be bought and sold to cover the national debt level. There have been recent discussions of BitBond issuances , or bitcoin-linked Treasury bonds, to help alleviate the debt burden of the US Federal Government. The premise of these BitBonds is to guarantee a 1% annual coupon in USD with a bitcoin-linked payout at maturity. Final Thoughts HODL may be an appealing bitcoin ETF given the fee waiver through January 2026, providing investors with a bitcoin exposure without the management fee. I am recommending HODL with a buy rating.
