Summary Circle Internet Group (NYSE:CRLC) is a leading global fintech and the second-largest stablecoin issuer, with strong growth in USDC circulation and revenue. CRCL reported FQ3 2025 results with 66% revenue growth and 108% USDC circulation growth, reinforcing its premium valuation and leadership in digital payments. Strategic partnerships and favorable market trends position CRCL for continued expansion, supported by a bullish outlook on stablecoin adoption and regulatory tailwinds. Assign a Strong Buy rating with a $134 price target, reflecting a 55% upside, driven by high growth, robust moat, and pro-crypto sentiment. Circle Internet Group Inc. (NYSE: CRLC ) is a global fintech that mainly focuses on digital assets, payments, and public blockchains. The company is known to be the issuer of USDC and EURC stablecoins, and a pioneer of the current digital asset revolution. Circle Internet Group also provides fintech services to businesses that seek to integrate blockchain-based payment and stablecoin solutions into their operations. CRCL debuted on June 4, 2025 , and has experienced significant demand for the company's stock. It has exceeded the initial price tag of $31 roughly 10x, reaching an all-time high 19 days later on June 23, 2025, hitting $298 price target . The stock has consolidated since then, yet now I think it has approached levels that may appear compelling to the long-term investors. I think Circle Internet Group experiences substantial multi-year tailwinds, which could result in the stock price appreciation and broader market outperformance. Based on this ECB article , CRCL is the second-largest stablecoin issuer in the world, and I believe the company positions itself to dominate the space over the following decade. That is why I think Circle Internet Group is a Strong Buy with a $134 price target over the next 12 months. This reflects a 55% upside possibility and broader market outperformance. The Second Ever Quarterly Report: Streak Continues, FQ2 2025 Highlights A Double-Beat On November 12, Circle Internet Group presented its second-ever quarterly report, highlighting FQ3 2025 results. The fintech pioneer continues its successful track record, indicating a double-beat performance. The market reacted to the results with a 5% decline in the pre-market session. Circle posted $740 million in revenue, suggesting a 66% growth on a year-over-year basis, and $40 million above what the market had anticipated. The bottom line arrived at $0.64 in GAAP EPS, and $0.46 above the analysts' estimate. These results indicate strong demand, solid growth, and argue for premium valuation. CRCL: FQ3 2025 Key Highlights (Circle Internet Group Investor Relations) In the earnings presentation , the company highlighted $73.7 billion in USDC circulation, suggesting significant network growth, representing a 108% growth on a year-over-year basis. The clients are leveraging Circle's network to optimize payments and cross-border transactions, which is also justified by $9.6 trillion in USDC on-chain volume, indicating 6.8x growth on a year-over-year basis. It seems that CRCL is gradually becoming one of the future leaders in the global payments landscape. Management highlighted that USDC has achieved a 29% market share in terms of stablecoin circulation volume this quarter. The overall circulation has grown 59% on a year-over-year basis, with Tether (USDT) leading the industry with roughly $175 billion of stablecoin network. Although the market may discount Circle due to being the second-largest in the space, I argue that this doesn't cloud the outlook at all. Based on this Citigroup research, the global stablecoin market size reached $282 billion in 2025, and on the base-case basis is anticipated to reach $1.9 trillion by 2030. This represents a 46.46% CAGR. If Circle coin maintains a dominant position in the space, it would significantly benefit from stablecoin market growth if tailwinds materialize. This heavily supports the bullish outlook for the company. CRCL: FQ3 2025 USDC Market ShareCRCL: FQ3 2025 USDC Market Share (Circle Internet Group Investor Relations) CRCL: FQ3 2025 USDC Market Share (Circle Internet Group) In addition, Circle continues partnerships, which drive network growth and top-line expansion. For instance, on September 17, the company announced a partnership with Kraken, aiming to expand USDC and EURC access and accelerate the utility of stablecoins on their platform. Furthermore, on September 30, Deutsche Boerse Group announced a collaboration with CRCL to advance the adoption of stablecoins in Europe. This is meaningful because Deutsche Boerse Group provides market infrastructure services to capital markets, including the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. These collaborative initiatives support a bullish and ambitious outlook and may significantly contribute to USDC's network growth. In addition, Circle Internet Group highlighted that the strong momentum for its network reflects 29 financial institutions enrolled, 55 in eligibility reviews, and roughly 500 are currently in the pipeline. With more entities on board, CRCL will strengthen its moat, and this supports a bullish narrative and positive outlook for the company. CRCL: FY2025 Outlook (Circle Internet Group Investor Relations) Management provided an update to the previously guided FY2025 outlook. CRCL anticipates a 40% CAGR for its USDC circulation, with $95 million in other revenue for FY2025. RLDC Margin is expected to reach roughly 38%, and adjusted operating expenses are expected to come in at approximately $502.5 million in FY2025. I believe the company appears to be well-positioned to achieve these targets. In addition, these expectations highlight improving fundamentals, which support a positive narrative. To conclude, this has been a solid quarterly performance for the stablecoin leader. The USDC network is expanding, with more institutions on board. I believe the significant pipeline of 500 institutions appears promising and reflects bullish sentiment. Furthermore, the company strengthens its market dominance and should benefit from the stablecoin market growth if the market share is sustained. Circulation in stablecoins has surged 59% over the past 12 months, indicating a strong demand for an innovative approach for digital assets and a global payment solution. I think the trend of rising demand is likely to continue, and Circle appears to be well-positioned to remain one of the key beneficiaries over the next years. Circle Appears Fairly Priced, But I Argue There Is Room For Multiple Expansion If Growth Delivers Circle Internet Group is currently trading at roughly 68 forward P/E versus the FY2026 estimate of $1.25. Although this indicates more than 2.5x overvaluation versus peers at 24x , and the average company in the S&P500 at approximately 23x earnings multiple , I argue that Circle deserves a premium valuation, and there is more room for multiple expansion if growth delivers. The forward EV/Sales and Price/Sales ratios of 8.24 and 8.58, respectively, support the thesis of premium valuation, indicating a 2.3x overvaluation versus the sector medians of 3.56 and 3.59. This may partially cloud the positive outlook. These valuation metrics suggest that the market may have already partially priced in the future revenue growth. CRCL: Revenue (Quarterly) (Seeking Alpha) Although this could be a possibility, based on the recent quarterly results, CRCL achieved more than 60% top-line expansion; therefore, a 2.3x premium, in terms of earnings multiple, may appear insignificant. The revenue growth rate indicates roughly 6x outperformance versus the benchmark's historical revenue growth rate of 10% , and more than 6x advantage versus the sector median of 8.47% revenue growth over the past 12 months. Given this, I argue that there is more room for multiple expansion if CRCL can sustain such phenomenal top-line growth. CRCL: Capital Structure (Seeking Alpha) Circle Internet Group is a low-leveraged business, and that is a significant argument for bullish continuation. The digital asset disruptor has approximately $222 million in total obligations , which could appear meaningful, but the company also has $1.35 billion in cash; thus, it could pay its debt with ease. Moreover, the stablecoin companies are acquiring more treasury bills than most foreign countries , and in this way, they heavily contribute to the reshaping of fixed-income markets. Followed by the GENIUS Act signed by President Trump in July, the pro-crypto administration established a clearer framework for stablecoins. This heavily contributed to the adoption of the digital assets and a more favorable environment, driving the positive sentiment. In addition to this, stablecoins are usually pegged to the US dollar and are backed 1-to-1 with reserves; thus, if demand for stablecoins grows, issuing companies may become one of the largest holders of treasury bills in the world. I also think this is a significant tailwind for the company, indicating that a larger USDC network would be backed with t-bills that are yielding revenue for CRCL. I also believe the trend of stablecoin adoption is likely to continue, and if administration remains pro-crypto, this could lead to the acceleration of digital asset demand. CRCL: Cash From Operations (Quarterly) (YCharts) Furthermore, the sentiment tied to Circle Internet Group is heavily dependent on the cryptocurrency environment. If investors are feeling more bullish, equities with crypto exposure may experience a positive sentiment shift, driving the stock prices higher. To highlight, the past three months of the year typically indicate a favorable environment for cryptocurrencies. Although this year both Bitcoin and Ethereum are down in Q4 , these underlying assets historically delivered double-digit returns in terms of both medians and averages. I think that the Fed easing cycle, pro-crypto administration, and meaningful increase in the digital asset treasury companies, such as Bitcoin treasury companies , which are supporting a floor price of underlying assets, support my bullish thesis that seasonality may still be in play. This would be a favorable environment for Circle, which could spark an end-of-year rally. Management achieved 6.34% return on total capital (TTM), which signals a 58% advantage versus peers at 4.01%. Circle Internet Group generated $523 million in cash from operations on a TTM basis, implying more than a 4x outperformance versus the sector median of nearly $121 million. To conclude, Circle is pioneering its way to dominate the rapidly growing industry of stablecoins and digital assets. The company is experiencing significant demand for its services, resulting in a surge of network growth. Based on the quarterly reports, the stablecoin issuer achieved more than a 60% revenue growth on a year-over-year basis, and if management can sustain this expansion rate, it is likely to maintain its dominant stance in the landscape over the following years. If this materializes, CRCL would also likely become one of the key beneficiaries of the digital asset revolution, driving a bullish narrative. Wall Street anticipates a negative $0.82 in diluted EPS for FY2025, $1.25 for FY2026, and $2.50 in diluted EPS for FY2027. Based on the analysis, I believe Circle remains well-positioned to achieve these targets, especially if a significant pipeline of institutions adopts the company's USDC solutions. If we apply a forward P/E of about 55 to the FY2027 EPS estimate of $2.50, we arrive at my price target of $134. This would represent a slightly more than 2x premium versus peers and the benchmark, justified by rapid revenue growth and dominant stance in a revolutionary landscape. I think the company experiences significant tailwinds, and if they materialize, Circle may become a dominant player in the stablecoin adoption for years to come. Main Risks And Concerns There are risks and concerns tied to Circle Internet Group that could meaningfully impact the stock price performance in the near term. To begin with, the company is heavily dependent on the monetary policy and a high-interest-rate environment. Its top-line growth is driven primarily by interest earned from high yield. Therefore, if the Fed reduces the funding rate significantly, this may result in weaker-than-anticipated revenue growth, and that may cloud the company's outlook. Although the current administration in the US appears to be pro-crypto, the global situation remains uncertain. If any unfavorable regulations and administration policies around the globe arise, this could meaningfully impact Circle's future outlook and sentiment in countries other than the US. Circle Internet Group experiences fierce competition from Tether. Although the company appears to have a dominant stance in the landscape, substitution risk remains. Digital institutions may favor the leading company in the field, which could contribute to the negative outlook. In addition, with the rise of stablecoin adoption, there may be more institutions issuing their own digital assets. For instance, based on this article, European banks are considering launching euro-denominated stablecoins to counter US dominance. This may appear concerning, but based on the stablecoin market growth, it is likely that there will be more players in the field to supply the rapidly growing demand. Thus, I think these concerns may appear overblown. Circle is also heavily dependent on the crypto sentiment. The stock correlates to crypto volatility, and it could be a challenge for long-term investors to stomach significant price swings. Although I think Circle is likely to become more stable as the business grows, in the short term, this remains a concern and feature to underline. On the other hand, if none of the risks and concerns materialize, I think Circle remains well-positioned to benefit from broader stablecoin market growth. Conclusion: Circle Is A Pioneer, Experiencing Significant Tailwinds — A Strong Buy I think Circle Internet Group may appear to be a compelling opportunity for long-term investors who seek exposure to the cryptocurrency landscape through equity markets. CRCL is a pioneer in the high-growth, high-demand revolutionary industry of digital assets and payment solutions, and I think the trend is likely to continue, justified by pro-crypto administration and successful adoption of stablecoins. Although the company remains highly volatile and dependent on both cryptocurrency sentiment and monetary policy, I think the tailwinds highlighted in the article outweigh the headwinds. I also believe that with a significant growth in the USDC network, and with more digital assets issued and being backed with treasury bills, CRCL is likely to become a more stable stock, justified by a larger moat and strong balance sheet. Given this, it may attract long-term investors seeking a more stable investment environment. I rate Circle Internet Group a Strong Buy with a $134 price target over the next 12 months. This suggests a 55% upside possibility and broader market outperformance. I think the company pioneers its way to dominate the stablecoin landscape over the following decade, and that heavily supports its bullish narrative. 18 Wall Street analysts forecast a $163 price target, reflecting a 89% upside possibility. Although this is definitely a possibility, I favor a more conservative approach, leaving me room for error.
