Summary Ethereum (ETH-USD) holds near $3,590, facing trendline resistance from October. Exchange outflows top $282 million, signaling continued selling into strength. Derivatives data shows heavy long positioning at resistance zones. By Jainam Mehta Ethereum ( ETH-USD ) trades around $3,590, recovering from last week’s sharp selloff but still trapped under a descending trendline that has rejected every breakout attempt since early October. The chart continues to show a clear pattern of lower highs, with price caught between overhead resistance and strong accumulation zones below. Until the trendline breaks, the broader market remains defensive despite short-term rebounds. Trendline and moving averages block upside On the daily chart, Ethereum faces resistance near the 20-day EMA and Supertrend zone between $3,880 and $4,070. These moving averages have turned into supply after serving as support in prior rallies. A daily close above $4,070 would confirm structural change and open a path toward $4,300 and $4,550, but until that occurs, rallies remain corrective. ETH price dynamics (Source: TradingView) Price has yet to reclaim the 50-day EMA ($3,893) or 100-day EMA ($3,881), both now acting as ceilings. A sustained close above these levels is necessary to reverse the pattern of short-lived bounces. For now, the 200-day EMA at $3,596 acts as a key reference point, with repeated tests reinforcing its role as trend support. Exchange and derivatives data signal divergence Spot flow data underscores the caution dominating market behavior. NetFlows on November 11 showed $282 million moving onto centralized exchanges - a sign that traders are positioning to sell into strength. Over the past month, the majority of sessions have shown similar inflow dominance, correlating with ETH’s inability to sustain rallies above short-term resistance. However, the derivatives landscape paints a mixed picture. Open interest remains elevated near $40.67 billion, down just 3% in the past 24 hours. Long-to-short ratios sit above 2.5 on leading exchanges, showing that traders continue to hold heavy long exposure even as price stalls. The concentration of leverage at resistance increases the risk of liquidation cascades if ETH fails to break higher. Options volume has declined over 23%, suggesting that traders are moving away from hedged strategies toward direct futures exposure. Funding rates remain positive, confirming that longs are paying to maintain positions. This optimism leaves the market vulnerable - a similar setup in early October led to a sharp correction once leveraged longs were unwound. Critical test between $3,880 and $4,070 The defining range for Ethereum now lies between $3,880 and $4,070. A breakout above this corridor would flip trend momentum and likely trigger short covering, targeting $4,300-4,550. Conversely, a rejection maintains the descending structure and shifts focus back to the 200-day EMA at $3,596 and the $3,350 support zone, where aggressive buyers defended during the early November dip. At present, ETH remains balanced between conviction and hesitation. Exchange inflows suggest traders are preparing for downside, while leveraged long positioning points to ongoing bullish bets. The battle between these two forces will define the next trend leg. In previous analysis, Ethereum’s resilience near the 200-day EMA was highlighted as the market’s key anchor. That remains true today. As long as price holds above $3,596, the long-term trend structure remains intact. But to shift the narrative decisively bullish, buyers must break the descending trendline and establish acceptance above $4,070 - otherwise, the market stays trapped in a broader consolidation phase. This material may contain third-party opinions; none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer . While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity , this post may contain references to products from our partners. Original Post
