The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is pulling staff back from furlough so the September consumer-price index (CPI) can be finished and published, according to the Wall Street Journal. As you may know, the CPI is the Federal Reserve’s favorite gauge of inflation, and September’s was originally planned for release on October 15 but faced delays after the government shutdown started on October 1. Officials now say the data will still be released this month, though no exact date has been set. The decision to recall employees is tied directly to Social Security. Payments are linked to inflation, and the law requires the government to calculate cost-of-living adjustments using third-quarter inflation figures. These figures must be ready by November 1. Without September’s CPI, the government would not be able to calculate those adjustments, something the official said “would be substantially damaged or prevented” if the report is not released in time. Administration brings BLS staff back for CPI work The Journal’s report said that the recalled workers would return “on an as-needed basis while maintaining the integrity and accuracy” of the data, and also confirmed that staff will “promptly resume work” on the September CPI. Investors, businesses, and the Federal Reserve all depend on the CPI to judge the state of the economy and to decide on interest rates. Also, the CPI is actually the most important metric for everyday Americans because it drives annual cost-of-living adjustments not only for Social Security but also for tax brackets, loan subsidies, and the review of federal programs. The government shutdown had already blocked the jobs report for September, which was postponed from its original October 3 schedule. Reports on retail sales, housing starts, and business inventories from the Census Bureau are also stalled. The Bureau of Economic Analysis suspended operations and will not publish its first third-quarter GDP estimate that was scheduled for October 30. Economists estimate that every week of shutdown takes 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points off gross domestic product. The impact is worse this time because so much of the government’s data is unavailable. Federal Reserve officials and private economists are being forced to make decisions “flying blind,” with no official reports to guide them. Shutdown expands as Trump threatens federal layoffs The broader shutdown began after Republicans and Democrats in Congress failed to agree on a spending plan. As a result, most federal workers are not getting paid. In past shutdowns, the harm eventually forced lawmakers to compromise. In 2019, after 35 days, a deal was struck when airport operations started collapsing. This time is different. Donald Trump, now back in the White House, believes his team has the upper hand. He and his Republican allies are focusing pressure on Democratic constituencies, threatening to fire thousands of federal employees who live in Democratic districts while keeping money flowing to Republican priorities like immigration enforcement. The White House said last week that “mass layoffs” were coming “in two days, imminent, very soon.” Those cuts have not happened yet. If they do, the stress on federal agencies could grow even worse. Many of those agencies have already been trimmed by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency, a program launched earlier this year that reduced staffing levels. Any additional layoffs would leave critical departments, including the BLS, struggling to operate. The government has said furloughed employees might eventually receive back pay. But Trump has raised doubts, openly questioning whether all workers will be made whole. He has also warned that many could be permanently cut. That threat makes the rebound for the economy less certain even if the shutdown ends. For now, the only clarity is that the BLS will deliver September’s CPI. Get up to $30,050 in trading rewards when you join Bybit today
