Bitcoin MVRV Breakout and Profit Supply Spike Could Signal Pressure Near $100K–$110K Resistance

Bitcoin’s MVRV breakout signals renewed on‑chain momentum as unrealized gains climb, pushing profit supply toward a key resistance zone. The MVRV rising above its yearly moving average and 99.3% of supply in profit point to elevated short‑term distribution risk near the $100K–$110K band. MVRV jumped from 1.9 to 2.4 in October, crossing its yearly average and signalling renewed holder confidence. Analyst data shows 99.3% of Bitcoin supply is currently in profit, historically preceding short-term pullbacks of 3–10%. Converging momentum and profitability metrics place the $100K–$110K resistance band as the next major testing range. Bitcoin MVRV breakout shows rising profit supply and pressure near $100K–$110K — read our analysis and next steps for traders. Stay informed with COINOTAG coverage. Bitcoin’s MVRV breakout and profit supply spike indicate increasing upside pressure and a higher probability of short‑term distribution as the market approaches the $100K resistance range. MVRV ratio climbed from 1.9 to 2.4 in October, a momentum crossover above the one‑year moving average. Analyst data shows 99.3% of Bitcoin supply is in profit, a historic level linked to short‑term pullbacks. $100K–$110K is the primary resistance range as on‑chain momentum and unrealized gains converge. Bitcoin is demonstrating renewed strength across multiple on‑chain indicators, positioning price action near a significant pressure zone. Expert commentary from market analysts highlights a decisive trend change, with momentum turning bullish after months of consolidation. MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) is a common on‑chain gauge for identifying expansion and distribution phases. The ratio measures market capitalization relative to the aggregate cost basis of holders, offering a snapshot of unrealized profit or loss across the network. Recent movements now point to accumulation resuming after an extended neutral period. What is the Bitcoin MVRV breakout? The Bitcoin MVRV breakout refers to the MVRV ratio rising above its one‑year moving average, indicating renewed net unrealized gains and increased holder confidence. This breakout often precedes acceleration but also raises short‑term distribution risk when profitability reaches historic highs. How does the MVRV crossover affect short‑term price action? The crossover from 1.9 to 2.4 in October shows a momentum shift from neutral to positive. Historically, MVRV crossovers have coincided with phases of renewed buying, but when paired with extremely high profit supply, they can precede temporary pullbacks. Short, disciplined risk management is prudent in these windows. How significant is the 99.3% profit supply reading? Analyst Ted’s flagged statistic that 99.3% of Bitcoin supply is in profit is unusually elevated and has only appeared a few times historically. Those instances were followed by short‑term declines between 3% and 10%, suggesting elevated distribution risk despite the current bullish momentum. Source: Ali on X Price action between November 2024 and October 2025 saw Bitcoin trade in a broad range from roughly $60,000 to $110,000, with MVRV oscillating between 1.6 and 2.8. A notable dip to ~1.6 in March 2025 aligned with capitulation events, while the April–May rebound returned the market to neutral territory. Why does the $100K–$110K band matter now? The $100K–$110K range has repeatedly acted as a ceiling across 2024–2025. With unrealized gains expanding and profitability metrics stretching, the band represents the next major test for buyers. If distribution intensifies near that band, expect short‑term cooldowns before any sustained breakout. What should traders and investors watch next? Key metrics to monitor include the MVRV trajectory relative to its moving average, changes in realized profit distribution, and liquidity at $100K–$110K. Use stop placement and position sizing to manage the elevated risk that comes with near‑historic profit levels. { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@type": "FAQPage", "mainEntity": [ { "@type": "Question", "name": "What does a Bitcoin MVRV breakout indicate?", "acceptedAnswer": { "@type": "Answer", "text": "A Bitcoin MVRV breakout indicates rising unrealized gains among holders and a shift toward bullish momentum; however, it can also precede short‑term distribution when profitability nears historic highs." } }, { "@type": "Question", "name": "How does 99.3% of supply in profit affect price risk?", "acceptedAnswer": { "@type": "Answer", "text": "When 99.3% of supply is in profit, historical precedents show increased probability of short‑term pullbacks (typically 3–10%), as holders lock in gains and distribution increases." } }, { "@type": "Question", "name": "Is $100K the next major resistance for Bitcoin?", "acceptedAnswer": { "@type": "Answer", "text": "Yes. Converging on‑chain momentum and stretched profitability metrics make $100K–$110K the primary near‑term resistance band to watch." } } ]} Frequently Asked Questions How reliable is MVRV as a timing tool? MVRV is reliable as a cycle and sentiment indicator but not a precise timing tool. It highlights phases of unrealized profit and loss; combine it with volume, liquidity, and price structure for better timing decisions (40–50 words). What should a long‑term investor do when profit supply spikes? Long‑term investors should reassess risk allocation, consider partial profit‑taking at clear resistance, and rebalance rather than fully exit positions. Maintain a multi‑year view while protecting capital near historic profit extremes. Key Takeaways MVRV breakout : The ratio moving above its yearly average signals renewed on‑chain momentum. Profit supply elevated : 99.3% of supply in profit historically precedes short‑term pullbacks. Resistance focus : $100K–$110K is the next key band; manage risk and watch distribution metrics closely. Conclusion Bitcoin’s current MVRV breakout and elevated profit supply suggest a meaningful near‑term test at the $100K–$110K resistance band. Traders should balance participation with disciplined risk controls, while long‑term holders monitor distribution metrics for re‑entry opportunities. COINOTAG will continue tracking on‑chain signals and market flow. { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@type": "NewsArticle", "mainEntityOfPage": { "@type": "WebPage", "url": "https://en.coinotag.com/articles/bitcoin-mvrv-breakout-profit-supply-2025" }, "headline": "Bitcoin MVRV Breakout and 99.3% Profit Supply Highlight $100K Resistance", "description": "Bitcoin MVRV breakout shows rising profit supply and pressure near $100K–$110K; analysis, metrics, and risk management guidance from COINOTAG.", "image": "https://en.coinotag.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/G2ZUWN_WgAA6Jm5-1-1-1-1-1024x576.jpg", "datePublished": "2025-10-05T08:00:00Z", "dateModified": "2025-10-05T08:00:00Z", "author": { "@type": "Organization", "name": "COINOTAG", "url": "https://en.coinotag.com" }, "publisher": { "@type": "Organization", "name": "COINOTAG", "logo": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://en.coinotag.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/coinotag-logo.png" } }} { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@type": "HowTo", "name": "How to interpret a Bitcoin MVRV crossover", "description": "Step‑by‑step guidance to read MVRV crossovers and act on distribution signals while managing risk.", "image": "https://en.coinotag.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/G2ZUWN_WgAA6Jm5-1-1-1-1-1024x576.jpg", "totalTime": "PT30M", "step": [ { "@type": "HowToStep", "name": "Confirm the crossover", "text": "Compare current MVRV to the one‑year moving average and confirm a sustained close above it." }, { "@type": "HowToStep", "name": "Check profit supply", "text": "Assess the percentage of supply in profit; values above 95% indicate elevated distribution risk." }, { "@type": "HowToStep", "name": "Map resistance bands", "text": "Identify key price bands (e.g., $100K–$110K) where selling pressure previously intensified." }, { "@type": "HowToStep", "name": "Apply risk controls", "text": "Set stops, size positions conservatively, and consider partial profit taking near historic high‑profit zones." } ]}