Bitcoin’s price may be on the verge of a major breakout as dwindling reserves on both exchanges and over-the-counter (OTC) desks create an imbalance between supply and demand. Swing trader Bedlam Capital Pres has forecast a “supply shock” that could “uncork” Bitcoin’s next major rally. OTC Balances Near Critical Lows Bedlam Capital Pres, a strong advocate for Bitcoin treasury company Strategy (MSTR), pointed to rapid declines in OTC desk BTC holdings as a key driver of potential price gains. “$MSTR buys most of its BTC from OTC trade desks. MSTR bought 182,391 BTC YTD,” the trader said, referencing a Cointelegraph report. “OTC trade desks’ collective balances are down to around 155,000 BTC. As the OTC desks run low, the demand on the public exchanges will increase, and that is what will uncork BTC’s price.” The analysis comes as corporate Bitcoin holdings continue to climb. On Monday alone, treasuries added 630 BTC despite Bitcoin trading near three-week lows. Strategy, the largest public company holder of Bitcoin, has been acquiring the asset almost every week this year regardless of market price. Exchange Reserves Bottoming Out Glassnode data shows combined exchange balances stood at 2.919 million BTC as of Tuesday, marking a significant reduction in available supply. This trend has coincided with long-term holders taking profits during recent price dips. “In sum, the market has shifted from euphoria to reassessment, with oversold conditions and seller exhaustion hinting at potential for a bounce,” Glassnode noted in its Market Pulse newsletter. “However, fragility is growing, and the structure remains vulnerable to external negative catalysts or delayed demand revival.” Profit-Taking Still Evident Market participants remain wary of further corrections. Glassnode calculated over $1 billion in realized profits over a 24-hour period this week. “$362M (≈35.8%) came from ancient coins held for 7–10 years – a rare event that may reflect internal transfers or true exits,” the firm explained. “Another $93M came from 1–2 year holders, also marking notable profit realization.” With OTC liquidity thinning and exchange reserves nearing multi-year lows, analysts argue that even modest demand growth could drive substantial price appreciation in the coming months.
